Foreign Policy Mag--we're losing the war

According to a survey conducted by Foreign Policy magazine and, as AFP put it "a Washington-based think tank", we're losing the GWoT. The primary cause? George W. Bush, of course:

“It’s clear to nearly all that Bush and his team have had a totally unrealistic view of what they can accomplish with military force and threats of force,” he said.

By the way, the think tank AFP casually refused to mention was the Center for American Progress, run by former Clinton official John Podesta and featuring Tom Daschle as a contributor.

The participants were not identified, but several officials interviewed for the story provided some insight. One of most outspoken is former CIA analyst Michael Scheuer, who was infamously blessed by CIA brass to write a book critical of the Bush adminstration shortly before the 2004 election:

“We’re clearly losing. Today, Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and their allies have only one indispensable ally: the US’ foreign policy towards the Islamic world.”

Scheuer was the founder of the original Rendition Program in the mid 90s. That same program is now the scourge of the modern liberal despite the fact it's original intention was to take terrorists and fly them on CIA airlines to other countries allowing torture. Strangely, there were no loud outcries back in the 90s, as folks seemed more concerned with things like this. Even at this late date the hypocrisy is still breathtaking.

Scheuer keeps resurfacing, just like a bad penny. He was quoted again Tuesday discussing yet another leak-based New York Times story about how General Hayden has closed the CIA's famed bin Laden unit, ironically named after Scheuer's son.

"This will clearly denigrate our operations against Al Qaeda,"

I wonder how he can possibly know, being retired and all. But Mr. Scheuer seems to have a lot of post-retirement knowledge, such as how our invasion of Iraq was the worst move ever made:

"The cumulative impact of several events in the past two years has gone a good way towards increasing Muslim hatred for Americans, simply because they are Americans,” he said, citing Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo and the East-West row over cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed".

It's one thing to say the Iraq war has enflamed people prone to flammability, but for him to include the Mohammed cartoons in his pushback smacks of utter cluelessness. The cartoons had nothing to do with America and incidentally, Bush himself condemned them, which many on the right renounced.

But speaking of enflaming "the street", surely he hasn't forgotten how high the temperature rose after Clinton bombed Baghdad, Sudan and Afghanistan in 1998. Those events triggered bin Laden's proclamation to "kill Americans, wherever you find them" which was followed by the Cole bombing, while back home Mohammed Atta was setting up shop in Florida.

It's hard to imagine the hate getting much worse than it was in late 2000. Or for that matter, 1993 when the Brooklyn Cell was at work trying to bring down the WTC and blow the bridges and tunnels. It's just as hard to imagine going back to the failed policies that allowed those attacks to occur.

Happy 4th and Godspeed STS-121

Happy Independence Day to all. Our grand "experiment" is still plunging ahead, probably well past what some of the founders might have imagined. I thank God for being born and raised in this great land, made possible by the sacrifice of the men and women who fought and died, both to start it and to keep it moving ahead intact.

One of the by-products of our experiment has been the greatest series of technological advances ever seen. When people are free to pursue happiness they tend to be more productive. Not to say other peoples around the world don't invent or discover things, it's simply multiplied here and supported by our massive GNP.

One such achievement is the space program, which of course will be on display today as Discovery is set to launch. Yes, the Shuttles are outdated and need replacement, but it's not as if other countries are flying superior models. To the liberals who say we need to scrap the whole thing and spend the money on social giveaways, well, your predecessors were saying the same thing about the Apollo program. Space exploration is vital and should continue with no delay.

So Godspeed, 121. It would be great to see a successful launch on our nation's birthday, a tremendous source of pride. But hey, if the weather gets in the way, we can wait. Lightning and wind shear must be respected.

Speaking of weather, the picture below was taken from the Shuttle. Known as "Red Sprites" and "Blue Jets", this unique form of upper atmospheric lightning needs more study before we fill up the stratosphere with space planes. The Shuttles are certainly best-positioned to provide the observations.











HAPPY FOURTH FROM THE GARGOYLE 7/04/06

Kim Jong decided that one rocket launch in the world was not enough. His fluttering little fireworks show was probably designed to take press away from a successful Shuttle launch and send a 4th of July message.

But does anyone take this idiot seriously, anyway? Even if he was able to successfully fire an ICBM to hit Seattle or Anchorage, his entire country would be cinderized by the gaggle of nuclear submarines prowling around the Pacific. The only real reason to pay close attention is the proliferation possibility, which most experts say is the number one threat to national security.

MORE 7/4/06

It will be interesting to see whether we get an answer as to whether NK self-exploded the ICBM or it just failed. Nevertheless, big ripples might come from this. Guess having NORAD on high alert turned out to be the correct thing.

It's a festival of leaks

A few lefty blogs are getting their shorts in a bunch about another leak-based story breaking in the National Journal. Reporter Murray Waas is forwarding details from leaked testimony of Bush's 2004 appearance in front of Special Prosecutor Fitzgerald in the Plame leak case:

President Bush told the special prosecutor in the CIA leak case that he directed Vice President Dick Cheney to personally lead an effort to counter allegations made by former Ambassador Joseph C. Wilson IV that his administration had misrepresented intelligence information to make the case to go to war with Iraq, according to people familiar with the president's statement.

Of course Waas' sources are secret, but unless it was a strategic leak by the administration for some reason, common sense says it came from Fitzgerald's staff. The circle of knowledge can't be that large.

As to the story itself, it doesn't live up to the sensational headlines. Sure, Bush had probably directed Cheney to "get it out" that a lying democrat operative with ties to the Kerry campaign was attempting to run a backdoor political hit job on them. It's hardly criminal to defend against tomfoolery of that sort. The criminal liability would arrive from ordering someone to reveal Plame's status, and according to Waas that didn't happen. In other words, there is no story here.

As to leaking, I'm not totally against it. Sometimes people feel they're doing their patriotic duty, even if misguided. But I get the feeling much of the recent leaking falls more into the category of political opportunism, score-settling, and feather-nesting, not only by the leakers but by editors/publishers receiving the info. That doesn't mix well with national security.

The US-based Mexican vote

The Mexican presidential race was too close to call. Like Florida in 2000, every vote was of vital importance, apparently even those from foreign countries. It appears the eventual winner might need to thank Mexicans living in America who temporarily migrated back across the border to cast ballots:

A large stream of Mexicans trekked on foot and piled into cars to cross the border and vote in towns from Tijuana in the west to Nuevo Laredo below Texas.

Reuters was very careful not to label these people as illegals, using the term--"U.S. based Mexicans", whatever that means. Another story from SFGate claimed most were not illegal:

For those in the U.S. illegally, they didn't dare cross the border to vote in person. Fear over the last year kept many from traveling to Mexico to apply for a voter card, necessary to request an absentee ballot or vote in Mexico on Election Day.

Well, ok. But in the same story they talk about farm workers traveling to Tijauna to vote without mentioning their status.

Also included in that story were some real puzzlers, on par with rhetoric heard during the Cinco de Mayo marches. Like this comment, for example:

Mexicans said the new president would have a vital role in helping millions of undocumented immigrants get legal residency. Outgoing President Vicente Fox made immigration a priority in recent months, traveling to the United States to encourage Congress to pass legislation giving illegal immigrants a chance at citizenship.

"It's important for the new president to fight for rights for Mexicans in this country," said Araceli Rodriguez, of Florida City, Fla., who voted with an absentee ballot. "We're always fighting hard to make it, but we've been living under more pressure, more strain."

Outrageous. Arrogant statements such as those represent just another illustratation of why so many Americans are hopping mad about this issue.

Odd coordinates

When the story first broke about the disapearance of Phillip Merrill, a noted Washington, DC, publisher and philanthropist, I hardly gave it a passing thought. He was a wealthy publisher who, for whatever reasons, probably drowned or committed suicide. Odd and tragic yes, but such is the nature of the daily headlines all over the country.

But Mr. Merrill's name would pop back up later. Around June 17 a story broke about the Secret Service detaining a man for 'odd actions' around Vice President Cheney during a trip to Colorado. While searching around for why Cheney was in Colorado and whether it had anything to do with Aspens, I checked the Aspen institute website and found a tribute to Mr. Merrill.

Turns out the former State Department employee/entrepeneur was a trustee of the Institute and good friends with the Cheneys. They had something in common--Maryland homes along the water.

This is not to say anything untoward happened to Mr. Merrill. By all early accounts it was thought to be an accident, since the initial indications were that he was beloved by his family, was a good sailor and the weather was fine. After his body was located with an anchor around his legs and a shotgun blast to the head, his family decided he had been a little depressed of late.

Fast forward to three weeks later and we have the New York Times blabbing the GPS coordinates of Cheney's home (and Rummy's) while giving away security measures at Rumsfeld's home. Hey, just sayin...

MORE 7/3/06

Glenn Greenwald's post stirred up a lot of talk about the net. My post was in context with the Merrill mystery, and was meant to be taken in context with a series of stories in the Times. Greenwald is correct--taken by itself it's a puff piece. But as Malkin asks in her follow-up post, why? Why now?

The administration pushed back hard after the Times ran with the Swift story. As a result Keller took big media heat. All of a sudden we see Cheney and Rummy's addresses tucked in the Sunday edition. Just sayin..

Mr. Fix-it

Two days, two bin Laden tapes. One might almost think he was holed up in one of al-Jazeera's studios.

His latest audio tape is an endorsement of the new leader of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, or whatever the latest nom de guerre is these days:

"I pray to God to make him the best successor to the best predecessor," bin Laden said. He urged him to step up "the struggle" to transform Iraq into the center of an Islamic Caliphate.

Bin Laden also urged the leaders of al-Qaida in Iraq to work with other militant groups operating there, saying they should maintain membership in the Mujahedeen Shura Council, an umbrella organization grouping Islamist militants fighting U.S. troops and the Iraqi government.

The Shura Council. Last we checked one of the top dogs was a former member of Saddam's military who goes by the sir name of al-Baghdadi. We were also recently informed that Haitham Al Badri, a former regime member, was directly behind the Golden Dome attack. Izzat al-Duri and his sons remain on the loose. All of this makes it difficult for al-Maliki to get anywhere with an amnesty program.

But if you really want a clear picture of the network we're still dealing with--the network Saddam cultivated--don't ignore this story:

According to Mr Vincent, the secret backchannel was used to pass messages between the UN chief and Iraq. The court was told that Mr Vincent kept note of purported exchanges in which Dr Boutros Ghali allegedly told Iraq to put secret police with UN monitors and that he would try to “neutralise” the UN’s chief weapons inspector.

Allegedly the notorious Tongsun Park acted as an international Mr. Fix-it for the Butcher, one of many. Park's name, and his partner in crime Samir Vincent's, are dropped all over the place in some very interesting ways:

Farbiarz outlined a tale of secret swaps of messages and money in New York cafes and restaurants; night-time meetings at the Sutton Place official residence of former Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali; a close encounter with longtime U.N. eminence Maurice Strong, who served as a top adviser to both Boutros-Ghali and then to Kofi Annan; and an episode in which Park in 1997 picked up cash from Saddam’s number two man in Iraq, Tariq Aziz, and “drove out of the Iraqi desert over the Jordanian border.”

How does any of this tie in with bin Laden? One might say he's simply pouncing on the embers of the previous regime, which he helped destroy by pretending to form a relationship in the 90s, only to draw America into the WoT knowing Iraq would fall victim to it. That would leave an opening whereupon he could begin his new Caliphate. Or, one might also say he was simply on Saddam's payroll just like all the others.

IRAQ'S MOST WANTED 7/2/06

In the spirit of John Walsh, Iraq's new National Security Adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie announced a brand new most-wanted list, which seemed to surprise a few folks:

The list, which offers a $10 million bounty for former Saddam deputy Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, accuses Saddam's daughter, Raghd, and her mother of using millions stolen by the former Iraqi leader to finance the Sunni insurgency.

It's interesting that someone given asylum in Jordan would be on Iraq's hit list, especially after Jordan just refused to accept burial for al-Zarqawi despite bin Laden's protestations.

But more interesting might be the yawning indifference to the former regime most-wanted deck of carders:

Also included in the document was a former Saddam intelligence chief as well as senior Baathists, who fled their posts in the wake of invading U.S. forces and are now playing a key role in the insurgency that has killed over 2,500 Americans.

Some, like Douri, are still on the three-year-old "deck of cards", a list of 55 wanted Baathist officials issued by the U.S. military. Most of the 55 are dead or in captivity but Douri, at times reported killed, appears still to be at liberty.

One of the other deck of carders was the former Chief of the Iraq Intelligence Service.

Shall we make anything out of the fact that Iraq placed al-Duri as number one and al-Masri number thirty?

MORE 7/2/06

It's not easy to keep track of the players on the merry-go-round. Evan Kohlmann tells us that despite the connection made by both DoD and the Iraqi government, UBL hasn't exactly made clear the same connection.

Regardless, here's a few possible reasons why Iraq might want to place al-Duri number one and al-Masri number thirty on their new list:

1) To cover Iran's involvement. This theory plays up the threat from Saddam's dead-enders to cover the destablizing influence coming from Iran, including weapons and money.

2) To marginalize bin Laden. This theory tries to maximize the impact of the Saddamists at the expense of the real trouble-makers--the Islamists, who remain the largest threat to a Shia-ruled Iraq and peace in the region at large.

3) Because it's true. The former regime had plenty of time to organize the insurgency, which included assistance from friendly players such as al Qaeda/bin Laden and bribed world leaders. They still have plenty of cash in the shoebox and remain the greatest threat to a Shia-based Iraqi government, and remain the best hope of the new caliphate.

4) The Bilderbergers told them to after being directed by the aliens.

I'm not picking #4, but then again there's not a stand-out choice among the first three, either.

MORE 7/2/06

This story, although perhaps of suspect origin, does seem to solidify the notion many had about Zarqawi's teetering role towards the end. While his widow might think his death was part of a deal including the Coalition (why wouldn't she?) if there was a conspiracy it's much more likely to have involved a strategic decision made by the enemy based on her thug husband's carelessness, ie, a hit by his Sunni handlers.

The tricky part is whether bin Laden would have been involved in such a planning session. Judging by his touching eulogy and recent proclamations it would seem the answer is yes. Then again, UBL hasn't had much of an effect on anything of late and his rhetoric could be designed to throw the dogs off the rabbit.

MORE 7/4/06

Surely this man is on Iraq's new list. After all, they were the ones who initially made the connection between the former dictator and 9/11.

Misunderestimating Memphis

The Graceland adventure certainly got it's share of coverage, and rightfully so. It's not everyday a head of state can be seen deliberately crooning a classic rock and roll song in a place as gaudy as Graceland.

But leave it to the mainstream press to tell us the "real meaning" behind the event. Why else would anyone come here, right?

The Washington Post weighed in and somewhat snarkily opined:

It was one thing to take his friend, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, to Memphis to visit what evidently is now the nation's most important tourist site.

"It was one thing"? As if coming to Memphis for anything else would have been a joke.

Our local waggers also weighed in and proclaimed it a stunt, quoting a Vanderbilt Prof:

"I don't think he's doing this because he likes ... music and he and Bush get along," said James Auer, director of Vanderbilt University's Center for U.S.-Japan Studies and Cooperation. "He's doing this because it's in Japan's best interests."

Funny, I never saw Mr. Koizumi gritting his teeth. Oh well, back to the WaPo a sec. Bush didn't join in song Friday, but no matter--the Post reporter ascribed some vocals to him anyway:

The image of the politically struggling president lamenting his own heartbreak hotel might have left his advisers all shook up.

Way to get that loser tag in there, guys.

But maybe I'm just too sensitive. We southerners can get that way about the homeland sometimes. So, in the spirit of togetherness I'm posting the following, which is going around the net right now. Read in the spirit of diversity!

One morning, three Southerners and three Yankees were in a ticket counter line at a train station. The three Northerners each bought a ticket while the three southerners just bought one.

"How are the three of you going to travel on only one ticket?" asked one of the Yankees. "Watch and learn," answered one of the boys from the South.

All six boarded the train where the three Yankees sat down, but the three Southerners crammed into a toilet together and closed the door. Shortly after the train departed, the conductor came around to collect tickets. He knocked on the toilet door and said, "Ticket, please. The door opened just a crack and a single arm emerged with a ticket in hand. The conductor took it and moved on.

The Yankees saw this happen and agreed it was quite a clever idea. Indeed, so clever they decided to do the same thing on the return trip and save some money. That afternoon when they got back to the station, they bought a single ticket for the return trip and watched to their astonishment as the three Southerners didn't buy even one ticket.

"How are you going to travel without a ticket?" asked a perplexed Yankee. "Watch and learn," answered the three Southern boys in unison. When they boarded the train, the three Northerners crammed themselves into a toilet and the three Southerners crammed into another toilet just down the way.

Shortly after the train began to move, one of the Southerners left their toilet and walked over to the toilet in which the Yankees were hiding. The Southerner knocked on the door and said, "Ticket, please."

Thank you. Thank you very much.