Bears, Eagles, Ayatollahs, and Spooks

The events of the past week regards Iran, missile defense and Russia leave the average schmoe saying 'what the'? The Russian president:

An attack would lead to "a humanitarian disaster, a vast number of refugees, Iran's wish to take revenge and not only upon Israel, to be honest, but upon other countries as well," Medvedev said, according to a Kremlin transcript.

"But my Israeli colleagues told me that they were not planning to act in this way and I trust them."

Link. Menvedev went on to detail a secretive meeting:

During a meeting in the Russian resort of Sochi in August, Israeli President Shimon Peres said Israel would not attack Iran, Medvedev said. After the meeting, Peres told journalists Medvedev had promised to reconsider a contract to sell S-300s to Iran.

"When he visited me in Sochi, Israeli President Peres said something important for us all: 'Israel does not plan to launch any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this'," Medvedev said.

Asked about the possible delivery of S-300s, Medvedev said Russia had the right to sell defensive weapons to Iran.

That meeting was timed suspiciously close to the Arctic Sea adventure from last month, in which it was rumored that Mossad agents were the "hijackers" trying to stop S300 missiles from reaching Iran. Now Russia, after we've dropped the missile shield on the basis of Iran having no more intention of building long-range ICBMs, comes out and spills beans on Israel. Is this part of the play? Because to this internet dope it appears Israel is getting the short end here.

Jerusalem is now on record as saying they don't want to attack. If they do, they look even worse than they normally would. If not them, who? Surely the Russians wouldn't, which leaves us, which seems to leave the Iranians with a nuke program. But surely Gates and his crew can't be that gullible and incompetent.

Remember, it was Robert Gates who came back on the scene during his involvement in the Iraq Study Group, which prepared a report to Bush recommending no troop surge. Bush then proceeded to surge, and things proceeded to get better. Gates is a former spook. Things are not as they seem. They simply can't be.

Brinkmanship 101

Once again George W. Bush proves to be a wild card in games of international brinkmanship:

The US is sending troops to embattled Georgia in the form of a humanitarian aid exercise, President George Bush said.

Wonder if Putey-Poot saw that one coming? Everyone figured Bush's hands were tied but the alternative of allowing Russia to run roughshod in the Caucasus, possibly paving the way for a future reacquisition of Azerbaijan or some of the 'Stans if adequate reasons can be manufactured, not to mention the oil pipelines in those regions, perhaps made up the Decider's mind.

So it's Putin's move. Will he call the bluff? Will he dare fire on US soldiers delivering humanitarian aid in a country being illegally attacked, perhaps jeopardizing their role on the Security Council? They say the Russians are good chess players but Bush has always operated under a Rovian doctrine that says "never underestimate the value of being underestimated". We shall see.

MORE 8/13/08

According to reports the town of Gori is being sacked by the Russians. Gori's claim to fame? Birthplace of the most famous Georgian Joseph Stalin, who must be smiling in the grave about now.

Bush and Georgia

The condemnations are coming in:

Miriyan Gogolashvili, of Tkviav, said: “The Russians will be here tomorrow. They want to show us and the world how powerful they are. Tomorrow it will be Ukraine and nobody in the West is doing anything to stop them. Why were our soldiers in Kosovo and Iraq if we don’t get any help from the West now?” he asked.

The Georgians are now retreating and begging their western friends for mercy. This could quickly turn bad in the court of public relations.

Putin surely knows it. He is displaying a lethal calculus consistent with a former KGB leader, probably figuring Bush is politically diminished and the American public has no stomach for engaging with Iran, much less some place they can't even locate on a map (I had to look it up on Google Earth, not realizing North Ossetia is where the Beslan massacre occurred). This is a win-win for him--he gets territory back while the neighboring countries realize western leaders aren't willing to risk world war III to defend them.

Something creative needs to be done, and soon. Cap'n Ed thinks Bush is doing enough by cranking up the empty rhetoric:

Former Soviet republics will learn to to fear Russia and to gravitate to the West for protection — as long as we stand firmly for Georgia. Fortunately, the Bush administration is now following John McCain’s lead on this issue and sending exactly that signal.

Actions speak louder, but apparently we can't act yet. But actions may come whether we want them or not. Oil is still a major player in all of this with major pipelines crossing Georgia to consider.

We've also got a presidential transition coming soon and with that worldwide terrorism antennae are already raised. AQ has struck somewhere around every transition since 1992 and Zawahiri's evidently still alive and speaking in English. Hopefully world leaders can refrain from gross stupidity and focus on stopping the extremism.