20 years ago today...

...TWA flight 800 exploded off Long Island.   There's a lot going on in our world today and this will pass without thought for the most part, but it's worth mentioning that some consider this a cold case that was never fully solved.

Here's one of them--former NTSB investigator Hank Hughes, explaining his role and opinion.  For what it's worth, the damage pattern seen on MH17, a verifiable missile shoot-down, didn't resemble what can be seen on the reconstructed TWA 747.  But, we don't know what the wings or horizontal stabilizers looked like or the tail fin as they were not included in the rebuild.  Nor were the engines. 

And we still don't know why agencies like the CIA were involved in explaining to the public the NTSB's implausible scenario that the nose fell off and the rest of the aircraft ascended several thousand feet, which was meant to explain away eyewitnesses who said they saw missile streaks.

Meanwhile, few if any aircraft have been retrofitted for nitrogen inerting systems, which were supposed to prevent future similar crashes, of which there have been none.  And cargo aircraft were not included in this recommended fix because we all know cargo aircraft don't blow up or something.  So you decide.   

Regardless, the official probable cause is in the books and will not be changed anytime soon. Eventually the skeptics and cynics and conspiracists will die off and the story of flight 800 will be relegated to the corners of history.  But there's someone running for president right now who might know a little more than the average Joe.

Aviation Update

Once again an aviation tragedy gets turned into a political football.   But this isn't all about Trump. 

Yes, the Donald showed poor judgment in jumping on the terrorist bandwagon as soon as the news reports came in on EgyptAir 804.  While that might have been everyone's gut reaction, a president cannot always operate off gut reactions.  Imagine Trump in the White House reacting this way then later the crash is blamed on a mechanical issue.   And that's no endorsement of Hillary, who also got on the bomb theory bandwagon albeit after unnamed US officials leaked what might amount to the same suspicions everyone else had.


Of course those US officials were echoing Egyptian officials in the early terror pronouncement.   And yes, the media has already started a whitewash campaign to pretend that Hillary really didn't endorse the terrorism angle on day one just like Donald, and will use it as a cudgel against him.   But he allowed it.

Meanwhile, those same initial reports indicated there was no distress call from the jet to Egyptian air traffic control after it was 'handed off' from Greek controllers. Some news stories suggested there was no contact at all--the plane just went down.  That's presumably what got many in the US media going down the terrorism road.     

Now today it was reported that there was actually an extensive conversation between Egyptian ATC and the doomed plane as it made an emergency descent due to a fire.  Wow, how did that get lost?  So that begs the question: were early reports from Cairo bungled or was it a deliberate deception?  Perhaps that's why someone on the inside leaked ACARS reports to Avherald that showed the onboard fire.  

Does all this mean the Donald goofed up and there was no terror attack?  Yes and maybe no.  Yes, he goofed up by jumping the gun, but yes it might still be an attack.  We know there was a fire, it started somewhere/somehow.  Terrorists these days are likely using small incendiary devices they can get past security--recall the Daallo Airlines A321 event where the idiot succeeded in blowing himself out of the jet and killing nobody else. The plane landed safely.  He smuggled the device in on his wheelchair.  So just because the aircraft didn't suffer a complete hull failure and immediately fall from the sky doesn't mean it wasn't attacked by someone. 

Also, just because the fire might have started in the electronics bay or lavatory doesn't necessarily mean there was no sabotage involved-- see the New York Times story today about what EgyptAir employees scrawled on the outside of that very same aircraft after current president Al-Sisi couped out Muslim Brotherhood terrorist sympathizer Mohammed Morsi two years ago.  That might amount to Jihadi sabotage, which most people would consider the same as Islamic terrorism. 

Still, all this new information certainly tips the scales of likely cause away from terrorism and more towards mechanical failure.   The question then becomes why the Egyptians allowed the erroneous information to percolate in the world media for days?   Was their concern legal liability or were they seriously trying to deflect while giving them time to comb their airports for Morsi/ISIS sympathizers?  Is the submarine they are sending in meant to locate the wreckage or maybe manage it?

Whatever the case, it behooves politicians and other officials to reserve judgments on these kinds of events for at least a few days.      

MORE  5/23/16

In another example of how most media outlets shouldn't be trusted to even report on a 3td class presidential race, much less important worldwide events, now they are saying there was no extended conversation.   And no, it doesn't mean that was deception or misdirection, it was likely some media twit misunderstanding the source. 

Also, on CNN's coverage this evening they were saying that whole 90 degree 360 degree turn thing might be fiction as well, since that information was presumably gleaned from primary radar only.  If the leaked ACARS messages indeed ended abruptly only minutes into the event, along with the secondary radar transponder track, then it seems we are back to Trump's original speculation.  At least right now.  The only definitive way to settle this will be the old-fashioned way, analyzing the recorders and wreckage.   But politicos don't have time to wait.   

Aviation Update

This story made news Tuesday:

An unidentified man was sucked out of a passenger jet at 14,000 feet after a suspected bomb blasted a hole through the side of the fuselage just five minutes after the Airbus A321 took off from Mogadishu. Eyewitnesses claim the badly burned body of an elderly man fell to the earth about 15 miles away from the airport at the time of the blast.

Horrible. Of course due to the location on the aircraft there's little speculation it was anything other than a bomb--even the captain didn't mince words:

Capt. Vlatko Vodopivec, the pilot, said he and others were told the explosion was caused by a bomb. "It was my first bomb; I hope it will be the last," Vodopivec told the AP by phone from Mogadishu. He said the blast happened when the plane was at around 11,000 feet and still climbing to its cruising altitude of 30,000 feet.

Shortly before he was caught, Ramzi Yousef was perfecting micro seat bombs using Casio watches for timers so he could place bombs on aircraft on one leg and have them blow up on the next leg, after he had exited.  Philippine Airlines 434 was his test run.  The "Bojinka" plot of the mid 90s would have used eleven of them simultaneously exploding on US carriers over the Pacific. Thankfully it was thwarted, although it didn't wake up the public very much.

But Yousef and Uncle KSM weren't the first. There were several terrorist bombs in the 80s, including TWA 840, which blew four passengers out of the aircraft on a flight from Rome to Athens, Greece.  Bomb maker Abu Ibrahim, now in his 70s, is still on the FBI's wanted list for helping construct similar devices--he was last seen in Iraq (where he held a long association).

By the way, the passenger who was ejected from the Daallo Airlines flight does not necessarily have to be the perpetrator, authorities are likely checking to see who was on the previous flight in that same seat or whether someone from the ground crew could have done it.   Still, it's likely this shows that once these terrorists get set on something they never give up.   


-------

Meanwhile another terror related aviation story hit the Daily Mail yesterday:

The deadly 9/11 terror attacks were devised by former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden after he was inspired by a pilot who crashed a plane into the ocean in 1999, it has emerged.

When bin Laden heard the murder-suicide on EgyptAir Flight 990 had killed 217 people, including 100 Americans, the terrorist strongman said: 'Why didn't he crash into a building?'

This conversation supposedly occurred in 1999. Which is interesting, because the FBI had information off Yousef's captured laptop dating to 1994 that talked of crashing an aircraft into CIA HQ. After capture KSM gave up more details about the "planes operation", detailed here in the 9/11 Commission Report:

KSM claims that the earlier bombing of the World Trade Center taught him that bombs and explosives could be problematic, and that he needed to graduate to a more novel form of attack. He maintains that he and Yousef began thinking about using aircraft as weapons while working on the Manila air/Bojinka plot, and speculated about striking the World Trade Center and CIA headquarters as early as 1995.

In other words, this recent bin Laden story sounds like BS. Since it came from the AQ magazine, that makes it even more likely.

The question is why, and why now? KSM is still languishing at GTMO with no hope of a trial until Obama leaves office, if then, so he poses no threat from a competitive jihadist standpoint.  A more realistic explanation is that AQ is just trying to put another halo on their deceased hero's head to enhance weak recruitment as compared to ISIS.  That is, unless it's one of their harbingers.  

If it was a bomb...

The determination of what brought down Metrojet 7K-9268  has not yet been made, but everyone has seen the leaks coming from western intelligence pointing to a bomb.   So let's assume for a moment it was a bomb.

And let's assume it was planted by an operator on behalf of ISIS, due to the Russian connection.

Who might be the mastermind?   We know AQ has some good bombmakers.  AQAP's al-Asiri is notorious and a highly sought after drone target.  We know of bombmakers in the Khorasan Group in Syria (otherwise known as Core AQ).  One was reportedly just killed.   But we haven't heard of many bombmaker geniuses populating the ranks of ISIS.

What about this guy?    He's a little old, yes, but passing knowledge would be his main contribution.  He's a long-time resident of Iraq, still wanted years after creating a bomb that was placed on a Pan Am 747 flying to Honolulu in 1982.  At the time he was also working on a plot to bomb multiple aircraft before the plot was fortunately foiled.  This was years before the Yousef/KSM "Bojinka" plot was uncovered.   The Saddam government likely knew about this activity and looked the other way meaning they sanctioned it, for what it's worth. 

Ironically, ISIS is filled with ex-Saddamists.  Al-Umari is a Sunni loyalist, no doubt.  Many of the ex-Saddamists have taught their jihadist partners a few tricks of their former terror trade, which has resulted in a new, improved terrorist army featuring many of the same enemies Saddam had.  The only difference is the new group wears religious hats and dons beards.  

So it sounds reasonable to assume he might be working with them now if he's still active in the game.  At any rate, the United States has put up 5 million bucks in an effort to get this old man off the Arab streets, so they must have a good reason.   

MORE  11/9/15

One thing to note.  It's a bit strange how quickly and adamantly that "unnamed US security officials" have declared this a bomb.  Here's yet another story.  Even in the story the officials claim they are not directly involved in the investigation.  Others say they have terrorist chatter in the NSA intercepts, but that's something they will never release due to security.   Compare all that to the other mysterious aircraft crashes over the past 20 years, wherein officials went out of their way to deny terrorism was even possible.   Obviously a political component needs to be suspected.   This still could have been a mechanical issue.    

Aviation Update

Another passenger jet falls out of the sky at cruising altitude.  This is getting a bit weird.

Weird or not, the loved ones of those lost on Metrojet flight 7K-9268 deserve a factual investigation.   Lots of speculation now as in every aviation disaster--early claims of terrorism by the terrorists should be taken with a grain of salt until more facts are established.  That said, claims by officials should also be scrutinized for accuracy.  They may be lying (for a variety of reasons) or just bungling the facts.

For instance, there is already confusion about the final minutes of the flight.  Many news sources are reporting something similar to this:

Ayman al-Muqadem, an Egyptian official with the government's Aviation Incidents Committee, said air controllers lost contact with the plane’s pilot after he radioed that the aircraft was experiencing technical problems and that he needed to make an emergency landing.

At the same time the Egyptian "Civil Aviation Authority" has said that communications were normal until the moment the aircraft disappeared off radar scopes, giving no indication of any technical issue. 

The above is very easy to confirm since it should be available on ATC voice tapes. It will also be on CVR recordings and we know both CVR and FDR were recovered. The distinction is critical in this case since it could mark the difference between sabotage or terrorism, ie, the plane suddenly disappeared as in the MH17 shootdown case, or a plane having issues and in crippled flight, trying to find a place to land before catastrophic failure occurred.

At any rate, this does not appear to similar to a TWA-800 type event since the aircraft was confirmed to be at an altitude where only sophisticated anti-aircraft systems can go as with MH17. If the plane was shot down using such a system it was either inadvertent or something very troubling.  But there's a ways to go before anyone should be reaching such a conclusion based on open source info.

SPEAKING OF 800..  11/2/15

Here's an interesting comment in a WaPo article on the doomed flight:

Modern planes don’t usually fall apart in flight, barring an explosion caused by a bomb or missile..

Indeed.

HEAT SIGNATURE  11/3/15

This is now being reported:

CBS News' national security correspondent David Martin reports a U.S. infrared satellite detected a heat flash over the Sinai at the time the Russian plane went down. The data is still being analyzed in an effort to determine what caused the flash. One possibility is a bomb, but an explosion in a fuel tank or engine as the result of a mechanical failure is also possible.

Since it almost surely has to be associated with the jet it would seem to rule out a sudden structural failure of the hull due to the old tail-strike repair, as some in the aviation business are guessing.   It also seems to line up with the video shown by ISIS propagandists.   At the same time, it doesn't completely rule out a mechanical issue.  An uncontained engine failure could blow parts out of the turbine and perhaps cause some kind of flash of heat, especially if it somehow caused a fuel fire.

That said, if the ISIS video is real then why would someone be randomly photographing a passing jet at over 30,000 feet?   It's not as if the photographer heard something and began filming (since the speed of sound would prevent that anyway) or saw something and began filming (video shows a jet before a small explosion).  

These questions can probably be easily answered by analyzing the aircraft debris for explosive residue and performing autopsies on the victims.  Whether this analysis comes out anytime soon is another question entirely.  It may depend on the conclusion.  Lots at stake for Egypt, Russia, the airline, the victims' families, and perhaps regional security.   

Aviation Update

You really have to hand it to NBC News for this...

"Island Storm may Help (or Hinder) Search for MH370 Clues"

That's some hard-hitting stuff right there.   Maybe Neptune will arise from the sea with the plane in his hand.

Meanwhile, has anyone confirmed how long the "flaperon" was lying on the beach at Reunion? Evidently they will try to gauge the barnacle growth to make a guess but without knowing how long it was there it seems a little suspect.  And if the part had been lying there for months why would anyone think more debris would wash up now, storm or no storm?

By the way, what happened to the imminent volcanic eruption?

Anyway, the French NTSB (BEA) has the flaperon and apparently that means they have control of the investigation now. Based on their findings on a few previous and somewhat strange international crashes...

We still don't know the actual causes of several mysterious crashes of late, including Air Algerie 5017, Ethiopian 409, Afriqiyah 771, Yemenia 626, MH370, and AirAsia QZ8501. We don't know what triggered the battery fire on UPS flight 6 out of Dubai. Most of these crashes were investigated in full or in part by the BEA.

...it seems completely fitting.  Yes, I am cynical. 

Aviation Update

This story is making the rounds with peculiar wording, including on the Drudge Report:

Prominent online security expert claimed to have made one plane briefly fly sideways while he was a passenger on board, FBI investigation states

Emphasis added. How many people reading that actually believed the airplane was going along on a straight path then flew suddenly flew 'sideways', which technically would be, well, impossible? Here's how CBS explained:

During the interviews, "He stated that he successfully commanded the system he had accessed to issue the 'CLB' or climb command. He stated that he thereby caused one of the airplane engines to climb resulting in a lateral or sideways movement of the plane during one of these flights," said the affidavit, signed by F.B.I. agent Mike Hurley.

The documents say Roberts accesses the plane's controls via the in-flight entertainment system, his laptop, and an Ethernet cable.

Aside from the sensationalist nature of the revelation, his contention of hacking the flight computer and issuing a CLB command sounds like it would result in asymmetrical thrust.  Literally flying 'sideways' is certainly not something an aircraft could do, at least not in the world of elementary math and 90 degree angles.  A yaw condition would be something else, assuming this actually happened.     

Keep in mind this takeover revelation comes from Mr. Roberts, not the airline. And it comes from the court releasing an FBI affidavit, which also reads like a warning to everyone about how good the Bureau is at uncovering everything ever done on any PC, which they surely don't mind being out there in cyberland. There was no mention of the flight Mr. Roberts allegedly took over.  Also, it's not known whether his hacked command input actually led to a thrust increase or whether it was coincidental. 

Whatever the case, the FBI seems more interested in getting him in jail than using his information.  It will be interesting to see what happens to a guy who appears to be a cross between Duck Dynasty and Spook Central.  Surely he will ask for a jury trial if it goes that far.  

Of course this possible revelation opens a number of worm cans.  First and foremost, the 9/11 truthers will be pointing to it as incontrovertible evidence the aircraft were remotely controlled and flown into the buildings by Dick Cheney (there will be no links here). In a more recent story it could explain, in a SPECTRE kind of way, the disappearance of MH370.   Presumably also led by Dick Cheney in retirement.

And it may also come into the discussion about the overspeed crash of Amtrak 188 in North Philly.  This tragedy occurred only one day after ISIS had issued an online cyber-threat promising something that would "surprise" the infidels (for liberals reading, that means non-Islamic westerners like you).  There are several reasons they might issue a specious threat, such as watching to see how internet and security professionals reacted to prepare contingency plans, but then again, maybe there was something to it.  

Stories about of ISIS' superior knowledge of the internet and computer systems have been all over the web of late.  How hard would it be for them to employ a guy like Chris Roberts? 

Whether the news on Saturday about a risky attack in Syria where the US Military targeted ONE GUY--and one guy few had ever heard of before--has anything to do with this is unknown.  Until the raid most knew the name Abu Sayyaf as the AQ terror franchise in the Far East.  Risky raids just to capture or kill one unknown guy don't seem to be the hallmark of the Obama administration--how would they have explained mission failure/capture?   There are things we don't know, and won't know.   Sometimes for the good. 

Aviation Update

With each story that comes out about Germanwings 9525 it's almost as if someone is trying to create conspiracy theories.

Today the Daily Mail published another tabloid version of the CVR transcript, this time by the French site "Paris Match".  The German site "Bild" had previously published a tabloid version, which was picked up by the so-called legitimate media around the world and featured the captain outside the door yelling "open the damn door".  That was apparently a scrubbed version as other sites quoted it as "open the Goddamned door".

The Paris Match version now changes the cuss words and removes the blasphemy:

The captain’s voice can be heard as he tries to open the door: “It’s me!” The captain is facing a camera connected to the cockpit: Lubitz sees him on screen but does not react. The captain grabs an oxygen tank or fire extinguisher in order to break down the door.No response from Lubitz. The captain yells: “For the love of God, open this door!”

So the captain wasn't damning God, he was asking in His name. The point where we were previously told he damned God has now become the F word...

10:37 and several seconds A second alarm is set off, audible and visual: “TERRAIN, PULL UP.” Still no reaction from Lubitz. The captain yells: “Open this f… door!”

Seems that whoever is leaking could get this straight, although it's possible the leaker is a third-hand source, maybe coming via gossip from a wife or husband close to the investigators (and perhaps being paid). Anything is possible with a tabloid.  Otherwise it doesn't make much sense for someone close to the investigation to get it so wrong.  Keep in mind the initial leak to the New York Times about the lockout story quoted a 'military source' close to the investigation, so we know those in the inner circle have already been leaking.

In another twist, the Paris Match adds extra details that seem to have come from something other than a CVR, such as the captain looking at a video monitor to identify himself when he was initially locked out and Lubitz looking at the monitor in the cockpit but not responding.  Not sure how that would be picked up on a voice recording.  The PM also now clarifies it was not a crash axe the captain was using to beat down the door but a crowbar stowed in the rear galley.  Which is nice because the crash axe is normally stored in the cockpit.  They also mention the sounds of people running up and down the aisles, something also yet reported. 

The PM version also mentions that Lubitz donned an oxygen mask, which has not been revealed previously. Pilots on various message boards have questioned whether a CVR tape could have picked up his normal breathing especially if he had taken off his headset--having a mask on would seem to answer that loose end (assuming it was one) because it contains a mic.  But why would a suicidal maniac driving the plane into a mountain put on an oxygen mask in his last seconds?   Was he trying to make it look like an accident?  Insurance payout for his girlfriend and yet-to-be-born child?   What was his insurance situation?   

Finally the CVR itself. It was found less than 12 hours after the crash--the same day--while the FDR has still not been found. They are both housed in the same area of the fuselage--the rear--a part of which was shown on the Daily Mail story (a relatively large fragment of the aircraft). It's hard to believe one could have completely disappeared while the other was easily found the first day.

It would be less strange had the authorities not initially claimed to have found the FDR the second day but missing its memory card, which was later changed to 'not found'. Pilots and others had also questioned whether a memory card could have been ejected from the solid casing while the CVR's case remained intact.

Another story the Bild and Paris Match are pumping is the cell phone video that seems to corroborate the CVR.  They can't find the memory card of the FDR, but they can find a cellphone memory chip (much smaller).   Were any others found?  

OK, I know this all sounds conspiratorial, but it's the last thing I want to do.  The history of Lubitz as portrayed gives him a motive and if the CVR has actually been found and the representations are accurate, it's not hard to imagine the scenario. Pilot's world is crashing down, he thinks he's losing his sight (and career) and everybody calls him "Tomato Andy" or the "Trolley Dolly", which suggests he might have been struggling with homosexuality.

That is, while he wasn't getting his live-in girlfriend pregnant while having an affair with a Flight Attendant named "Maria".

Then again maybe he put the oxygen mask on to pretend the plane crashed due to mechanical issues, hoping his left behind GF and future child would benefit.   If so, he must have never read an NTSB report.  He would have to know that if they found a body with a mask on they would also find other clues that showed he did it.

In other words, still some loose ends still here. But would--or could--any country go to the length of covering up a terrorist suicide attack or some embarrassing cause with such an elaborate cover story?  Seems implausible.  But the circle of knowledge of those who've heard the CVR is actually pretty small. And let's face it--without an FDR everything we know or think about this story hinges on that CVR tape.  Maybe they could let some reporters listen.

MORE  4/2/15

Some questions answered.   Today's Daily Mail news is less conspiratorial.   FDR now reported to be found.  And searchers say they've found 40 cell phones in very damaged conditions.   No cell phone video inside the aircraft showing the last seconds should EVER be released to the public in my opinion, if nothing else but out of respect for the deceased, but it will be eventually.  Some horrors that used to be relegated to the imagination or Hollywood are now available to anyone, not sure that's necessarily a good thing. 

Still some loose ends here--they can largely be cleared up by either the BEA releasing the CVR transcript and now FDR data logs for independent analysis.  Meanwhile, as Lubitz' guilt becomes more clear the main topics will become, 1) how much medical privacy pilots should have and, 2) how to change cockpit security now that the press has released a lot of formerly unknown information and Lubitz has apparently shown terrorists how to crash a modern passenger jet from the cockpit.     

MORE WEIRD   4/3/15

They released pictures of the FDR and it looks nothing like its been shown to look on the web, ie, painted bright orange and in a bracket like the CVR (mounted beside it).  However, there's not a flint of orange paint on the part they showed (in pictures, not live in the room) but they explained it had been ejected from the plane and flung into the ground and scorched due to the impact fire, which presumably explains the lack of orange. 

So why was the entire thing scorched by fire if part of it was embedded underground?  Embedding would have happened seconds or microseconds after impact, not really enough time to be completely charred on its way to becoming embedded.  This doesn't seem to make sense.

Unlike some conspiracy theorists I'll give them the benefit of perhaps a language translation error or other miscommunication going from French or German to English.   Indeed, this revelation could line up with the initial story on day two attributed to French President Hollande that the FDR was found but the "memory card" was not there.  It's possible they found the bracket but not the case, and that's what Hollande meant by saying memory card (he meant to case holding it).

Also per the tablet PC found in Lubitz' apartment, why would a professional pilot have to surf the web looking up info on cockpit door locking systems?   That doesn't make much sense either.

Still haven't heard any confirmation of the Paris Match story that he had donned an oxygen mask.   That seems important to me.  It's almost as if there might be some kind of Batman-like switch in the cabin that puts green smoke in the cockpit to incapacitate the cockpit crew.  Why else would a suicidal pilot be wearing an oxygen mask, especially if we are now being told he accelerated the aircraft into the mountain, meaning he almost certainly knew he would be in little pieces shortly?

MORE  4/4/15

Every piece of new information coming out makes the initial leaked CVR info about the lock-out look more plausible.  Still, wondering about 1) what was in the cargo hold of that aircraft and 2) the list of the passengers.  I don't recall seeing either point of data released yet.  I do recall a question from the initial BEA press conference on March 25th about lithium batteries in the cargo hold, which was brushed off.   Again, why was Lubitz supposedly wearing an oxygen mask as he suicided into a mountain?

That same BEA press conference also contains a question about the FDR, with a reporter asking for confirmation as to why French President Hollande said the FDR had been found without its memory card.  The answer was that no FDR had been found.

So who told the president of France such a thing, and why?   Yes, there can be misinformation during such times and people sometimes confuse one item of detail for another in the haste to provide answers, but we also have this CNN report (that has now 404'd on their own site) mentioning the French "Interior Ministry" was "reconstructing" some details from the CVR, which, according to this report, had been found only hours after the crash:

"A black box that we found a few hours after the crash will immediately be examined to help the investigation move forward quickly," French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told reporters Tuesday.

Emphasis added. The BEA guy in the presser, which occurred approximately 20+ hours after the CVR was found, said they had only received it 'minutes ago', although he didn't specify whether he meant the box itself or the "usable" audio.  Later that evening a leak came to the NY Times from a senior military official close to the investigation about the Lubitz lock out.   More questions.  Who was that person?  Are they in trouble for breaching the security of the investigation or did someone want them to leak to the NY Times?  If so, why?  

As to the FDR, the first report of it being found seems to be on March 25th when French President Hollande was on site with Angela Merkel and other dignitaries and gave statements to the press:

17:11 - Hollande confirms casing of second black box recovered French President Francois Hollande said Wednesday the casing for the second black box from the Germanwings Airbus crash had been found in the French Alps, but not the box itself. "We're looking for a second black box. Its casing has been found, but not yet, unfortunately, the box itself," he said at a news conference near the crash site, alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Emphasis added again.  This may not be conspiratorial insofar as the FDR was later found in the ground without its main frame. There was confusion though, as other reports initially claimed he said the memory card had been dislodged from the box:

Confusion surrounded the fate of the second black box. French President Francois Hollande said the casing of the flight data recorder had been found in the scattered debris, but was missing the memory card that captures 25 hours' worth of information on the position and condition of almost every major part in a plane. Jouty refused to confirm the discovery. French officials said terrorism appeared unlikely and Germany's top security official said there was no evidence of foul play.

Again the emphasis to point out that the NY Times, posting an AP story, was saying the actual casing of the FDR was found but the memory card inside wasn't there--which is not the same as the casing being separated from the frame holding it.  The BEA official made a point to mention the strength of the casing of the FDR and expected to get good data from it.  Again, who told the President of France to say this?   Was it Inspector Clouseau? 

Ah well,  We can hope for a truly factual investigation of this tragedy sans any politics, which by all accounts appears to be a suicide if the released information is accurate (a cause itself that brings enough trouble regardless of other possible scenarios). But with such high stakes riding on aviation in a world of Islamic terrorism.....

In addition, according to classified U.S. intelligence assessments, the Khorasan militants have been working with bomb-makers from al-Qaida's Yemen affiliate to test new ways to slip explosives past airport security. The fear is that the Khorasan militants will provide these sophisticated explosives to their Western recruits who could sneak them onto U.S.-bound flights.

...(remember they were bombed in Syria specifically due to the threat to aviation) it's just hard to know for sure anymore. Whatever happened to the Khorasan Group anyway?   Well, about 15 days before Germanwings the US once again bombed them in Syria, again stating their threat to aviation as justification.  After-action analysis was not clear as to how much the attacks had crippled their operations.  Also keep in mind that one of the master bomb-makers in KG is one David Drugeon, a French national. 

Aviation Update

Obviously the leak to the New York Times has taken front and center in the reporting about Germanwings 4U 9545.   It's certainly a game-changer, if true (it appears to be single-sourced).  If true, some questions come to mind.

The first question is "who".  The second is "why".  Who and why would someone feel the need to leak to the New York Times about what's on the voice recorder?  Looking for clues in the Times article, one finds the initial description of the source:

A senior military official involved in the investigation described...

Not a lot to go on there.  As to who, it's a military person, we don't know if male or female, but "senior".  We don't know from which military.  Speculation would say the Germans, French and Spanish would have military presence, and perhaps the US and UK as well.

The next question is why. Did they leak with the blessing of their fellow investigation team members or the governments involved? Or did they leak precisely because of those governments?   Did they do it out of respect for the victims and their families, or was it BS to further some kind of cause? 

The story of the CVR has been a little strange since so far. They found it very quickly, the day of the crash, but that's not necessarily a mystery since the terrain involved was barren and the weather was good.  It's evident by looking at the crash photos that the plane impacted and threw out debris downrange and up the mountainside, including part of the tailplane section where the black boxes are located.  So they had a general area to canvas. 

Pictures were quickly shown of the mangled unit, but the data cylinder looked to be in half decent shape, and indeed early reports said they expected to get some info from it.  Then early today a report circulated on pilot forums that someone had already listened to the CVR and talked of a possible cracked windscreen.

That coincided with reports that the CVR was badly damaged, suggesting they might not find much.  In the afternoon the lead investigative agency--the French BEA--said there were some usable sounds but it could take months and months of analysis before conclusions could be drawn.  They did say the plane flew all the way to the ground and there was no decompression, ie, no cracked windscreen.

Now this evening we get this leak, which if true provides some important added context to the BEA's a few "useful" sounds but completely destroys their contention it could take months of analysis to find a cause.


The panel of experts on CNN this evening, with the exception of Richard Quest, was troubled by this revelation because it clearly brings several nefarious scenarios into play. One, suicide. And this doesn't need to point to Islamic terrorism or any other extremism (which was typically ruled out by a political figure before all the investigators even reached the scene).  There are several maddening cases in the past of pilot suicide for a variety of reasons, which very recently could have occurred with MH370.

The more famous occurrences include EgyptAir 990, PSA 1771, most likely SilkAir 185, with Fed Ex 705 an attempted suicide that happened here in the Memphis area in 1994 and would have resulted in a 9/11-like crash dive into the package sorting hub years before the GWoT began with the deliberate destruction/suicide of four passenger jets in New York and Washington.

But a locked out pilot also brings in terrorism.  Sudden Jihad syndrome might explain EgyptAir 990. And it might not even be a pilot.  Was another crew member in the cockpit during the other pilot's bathroom break?  United States protocol requires this arrangement.  If so, who was it?   And what are the names of the pilots?

We still don't know the actual causes of several mysterious crashes of late, including Air Algerie 5017, Ethiopian 409, Afriqiyah 771, Yemenia 626, MH370, and AirAsia QZ8501.  We don't know what triggered the battery fire on UPS flight 6 out of Dubai.  Most of these crashes were investigated in full or in part by the BEA.

As goofball Quest said, there's a gnat's chance it could have been a medical issue that incapacitated the pilot flying just as the other pilot left to visit the bathroom--assuming a crew member didn't enter the cockpit.  For that reason the FDR is now the most critical piece of the puzzle because it can determine whether the inputs to descend in an orderly manner without a course change were coming from the Airbus flight computer or a pilot overriding it.   

And wouldn't you know it--they initially said the FDR was found early today but that it was torn up and the memory card wasn't there.   Then at the afternoon press conference the BEA said that the FDR had not been found at all.  Then, as the BEA was sleeping, a leak came out, which was non-denied by Lufthansa. We'll see what the BEA says tomorrow and wait to see if they are followed up with another leak after bedtime.

MORE  3/26/15

So the leak was true.  BEA played a bit fast and loose at their presser yesterday by saying it could take months of analysis to determine a cause, claiming to have not listened to much of the recording before coming out to face the media.  Which is strange.  Why not listen to all of it before coming out?  They obviously listened to all of it in making the statements made today.  Was that the reason for the Times leak?

Whatever the reason many will now consider this case closed.  First Officer Lubitz was a cold-blooded mass murderer, on to the next disaster.  But some will want to know how he could have done what he allegedly did.  In searching around, nothing reported so far suggests any reason for a mass murder.  They say he was stressed out back in 2009 when he was getting into the flying business?   Surely he's not the only one.  Good thing all stressed-out pilots don't fly into mountainsides. 

But the authorities are taking pains to rule things out.  After having ruled out terrorism before all the investigators arrived on scene, French authorities are still ruling out terrorism after having learned it was sabotage and not 'an accident':

It is unclear what Lubitz's motivations were, but officials are slowly ruling out terrorism. "According to the current state of knowledge and after comparing information that we have, Lubitz does not have a terrorist background," German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said on Thursday.

A "terrorist background"? You mean his father wasn't a founding member of the Baader-Meinhoff Gang? Or he had no recent trips to Afghanistan or Pakistan? That doesn't rule out a sudden conversion in the least.

The investigation will not be complete until more is learned about 1) his girlfriend--what does she know? Were they still together or had there been recent trouble? 2) What were his finances? Was he in serious debt? Gambling problems? Was he struggling in any other way? 3) What was his religious background? Was he a practicing anything? 4) Who were his friends? What have they said? Had any Germanwings flight crew members or flight attendants had any issues with him?

Only after these background questions are answered will there be any chance of actually understanding the motivation here.  Finding the FDR might also help.

AND THE CNN STUPIDITY CONTINUES..  3/26/15

If it's not Richard Quest it's CNN.com (emphasis added):

Lubitz was not known to be on any terrorism list, and his religion was not immediately known, Robin said.

As if governments or Lufthansa would let Lubitz keep flying around if he was on 'a terrorism list'. That's so grotesquely stupid it's almost beyond belief.

As to his religion, seems kind of important to know before ruling out terrorism.  What if he was Jewish?  Would that change mainstream coverage?

MORE  3/28/15

AP reports that the French pilots union has filed a lawsuit in their country over the leaking of information to the press.  The initial NY Times leak was seemingly the crucial leak that opened the dam, because that occurred immediately after the BEA said it could take months and months of analysis to determine a cause.  The question is who leaked--we know it was someone from somebody's military--and why.  

Meanwhile, rumors persist over Lubitz' medical condition and state of mind.  We know he was treated at a hospital in Germany shortly before the fateful flight, but not for depression.  We also know he made what appears to be an impulse purchase of two Audi automobiles for himself and an unnamed girlfriend a week before the crash. 

As to the girlfriend, the Daily Mail reports that a "former" girlfriend said he was troubled and once mentioned he would be "remembered forever" or thereabouts, which she didn't think was worthy of disclosure until after the event.   That was evidently not the same girlfriend he bought the Audi for, although according to the story the car offer was rejected.  This brings in the possibility of another breakup, which could have been a triggering event. 

Another rumor floating around is that he was gay and struggling with it, but that seems to be about as solid as rumors reported in some conservative blogs that he recently converted to Islam.  Perhaps some in the pilot community would rather see the jihadi explanation than a psychotic act of selfishness and murder, but this will end up wherever it ends up.  Events such as these are going to happen in a free society, just like mass shootings and other atrocities.  The final question is how much freedom the public is willing to give up in an attempt to prevent future occurrences. 

Aviation Update

Another horrible loss re QZ8501.  Sympathies to the families--there's no reason they should have to see images of bodies floating in the ocean on TV networks and major web sites.

Thoughts so far...


1.  It appears the aircraft did not come straight down like another AF447 event.  Sonar reports show it about 60nm away from the last known radar position, which means the crew might have fought the plane and tried to make some kind of crippled ditching.  Reports that some victims were 'holding hands' at the end makes it appear the aircraft might have been intact until the end, ie, no explosive decompression or hull damage at altitude.  The geo-position of the bodies in proximity to the wreckage depends on the currents in that area.  After three days there is going to be some drift.  Autopsies would confirm whether anyone left the aircraft before it crashed.     

2.  It's not immediately known (haven't seen it reported at least) whether the captain or first officer was flying the plane.  Also, are there any suspicious names on the manifest?   The FBI in Washington probably ruled out terrorism last week, but to be honest, this looks more weather-related.  Leaving two hours before scheduled departure time is unheard of in the US, but maybe they knew the storms were coming and tried to beat them.  It would be interesting to know where and when the crew got their takeoff weather briefing.  There should be a dispatch release or something similar.  Such a thing is required in the United States. 

3.  If the initial leaked graphic of the radar track of the aircraft's last known position is accurate then the pilot busted his ATC clearance by climbing beyond his assigned FL320 altitude (it showed 36,300 feet).  They had asked for FL380 and a slight left turn, but according to reports ATC didn't get back with the clearance until after they had disappeared off radar.  This suggests something was going on that demanded they climb immediately, without clearance, unless they were in an updraft and couldn't help it.  Such might explain the very low ground speed.  Such also suggests a stall within an area of either ice crystals or supercooled water droplets, bringing icing into the picture, or extreme turbulence.     

4.  At any rate, the speculation will be over soon.  It shouldn't take long to find the black boxes, which should largely solve this mystery.  The families and the rest of the world should know some details fairly soon.   Now, if they can just find MH370.

Enhanced Infrared Satellite photograph with two black circles indicating departing and destination airports with black line the approximate flight track.  Red colors equate to colder temperatures, which translates to higher cloud 'tops' and stronger storms.  Weather is always changing--on this particular morning the storms along the route were building not decreasing.

MORE  1/1/15

Sigh.  It was hoped the information flow on this event would be better after the absolute nightmare of erroneous information and corrections with MH370.   Now, after CNN and other media outlets picked up a report about a sonar-identified location, the 'official' source of info claims no such thing occurred and the wreckage has not been located.   Without a partially intact fuselage resting on the bottom all of the above speculation is obviously suspect.

We do know a few things.  Bodies were found, reportedly only 6 miles from the last radar location.  According to this chart the current is fairly weak in the Java Sea.  This brings an explosive decompression or other structural failure situation back into play, if the bodies found to date were ejected from the aircraft before impact.  Had the aircraft come straight down in a dive the destruction would have been fairly complete and the remains in quite a different state than found so far.  This scenario also brings pilot suicide or terrorism into play.

That said, if the aircraft came straight down it should be in the general vicinity of the last radar hit (which is not being reported officially--primary radar would have recorded something beyond the last secondary hit).  If sonar is not picking it up that could mean there are no large pieces left due to the aircraft being in a nose-down attitude descending at a high rate of speed.  This was the case with the Air Algerie MD-83 that crashed in a thunderstorm in Mali this past summer.

Matter of fact the Mali crash could turn out to be quite similar since both aircraft were above FL300 in cruise when they tried to circumnavigate thunderstorm complexes.  However, according to the interim French BEA report the cockpit voice recorder on the Air Algerie plane had malfunctioned and was taping multiple layers of conversations over itself through several flights instead of erasing and recording as designed, leaving a jumble of conversations.  They do have the FDR, but without the cockpit conversations it will be harder to understand the crew's thinking or whether there were any unusual sounds before they went out of control.


One thing seems fairly certain.  If it's unclear what happened they will do everything possible to push the pilot error or weather-related probable causes as those are the safest findings for everyone involved and people tend to accept those explanations.  Considering terrorism, one of the reasons KSM and Yousef planned their "Operation Bojinka" with up to a dozen aircraft being blown up simultaneously was because they knew the authorities could not cover up the findings.  The same thing occurred on 9/11--after the first plane impacted the tower everyone was watching as the second one came in so there was no denying what had occurred.

Still, this feels more like a weather-related crash.  If so, and if the AF447 cause wasn't to blame, then it might go against the long-held reasoning that tropical thunderstorms contain weaker updrafts than mid-latitude varieties.  But maybe the science isn't completely settled yet.    

MORE  1/3/15

Looks like Air Asia was flying an illegal route.  Maybe that had something to do with them leaving 2 hours before scheduled flight time.  Meanwhile, experts are speculating that since the ELT did not activate it means the airplane did a Sully Sullenberg splashdown on the ocean.  OK, but how does that explain pieces of the aircraft they are now discovering, sheared from the fuselage?  That doesn't comport with a splashdown-sinking, it more comports with the aircraft plunging after an upset and surpassing its aerodynamic limits and breaking up before impact.

That might also explain why the ELT didn't activate--perhaps the antenna was broken off before impact.  And finding people, God rest their souls, still strapped in their seats on the surface doesn't line up with an intact splashdown and sinking.  It does line up with a breakup before impact and perhaps the main wreckage is closer to the position of the last radar indication than earlier thought.  The current in the Java Sea would float everything still on the surface east over time. 

Anyway, if weather turns out to be a causative factor here's hoping the aviation industry in Asia adopts the US model on weather avoidance, which has produced an incredible safety record over the past decade plus. 

Aviation Update

The reporting on the crash of the Dassault Falcon 50 in Moscow carrying French oil giant Total's CEO has become typically weird.  Not to say there is a giant conspiracy, but not to say one should be ruled out.

As usual there are conflicting reports.  Some examples are shown below, with items of note in bold.  First, here's something from an AP wire report:

The crash occurred at 11.57 p.m. Monday local time when the French-made Dassault Falcon 50 burst into flames after hitting the snowplow during takeoff from Vnukovo airport, which is used by Russian government officials, including President Vladimir Putin, and visiting foreign leaders.

So AP says it was during "takeoff". Makes sense when considering the destruction of the aircraft, which apparently inverted before its tragic end. But here's the press spokeslady from the Vnukovo airport (the government facility Putin uses to fly in and out):

During the taxiing before take-off, at around 0:10 am Moscow time on Tuesday, the light aircraft hit a snow-clearing machine, the head of Vnukovo’s press service, Elena Krylova, told the media. “A Falcon airplane that was en route from Moscow to Paris collided with a snowplow while the jet was preparing to take off. The plane caught fire after the collision and all the people onboard – including a passenger and three crew members - died,” Krylova said.

The aircraft did not leave the ground after hitting the vehicle, she added, refuting earlier reports that the plane did eventually take off but then the pilot made a decision to turn back and land. The investigators have already found the aircraft’s black boxes while the airport staff were writing explanatory reports, she added.

So we're being asked to believe the Falcon jet slammed the plow as it was lining up for takeoff?  With debris strewn hundreds of meters and the aircraft being inverted?  But despite the widespread debris the plow driver survived and amazingly, the airport was cleared to reopen only 2 hours later:

Vnukovo Airport temporarily suspended all flights following the incident, but by 2 am all operations were restored.

Perhaps at this juncture it would help to show a picture of the airport..

Two main runways, lots of taxiways, more than enough potential confusion with low visibility.  And they could have resumed operations with only one runway, it appears.  So what about the weather? According to this report the temperature at crash time was 34F with humidity at 100 percent with a light southeast wind--all conducive to fog formation, and indeed the weather observation mentioned visibility at only 1/4 mile in light drizzle. So, why was a snow plow on the runway?  Were they releasing urea or some other substance to melt possible slush and ice?  Maybe--Moscow was expecting snow.  And it's entirely conceivable the allegedly drunken plow driver got lost in the mist and took the wrong taxiway or crossed an active runway and nobody in the tower could see it.  But we're back to the plow driver surviving, which sounds like a miracle. 

By the way, here's another story that described the crash this way:

"During run-up at 11:57 pm (1957 GMT), there was a collision with the airport's snowplough...

Misinformation after crashes is as predictable as sunrise, especially with the clown car media involved, but this report was from the airport PR person, not the media.  And she claims the plane wasn't taking off, because if it was taking off it wouldn't be 'running up'. 

But here's a presumed eyewitness report of airport operations this morning--only hours after the crash:

I was in Vnukovo today. I couldn't find any rests of the aircraft. Last night, at 12.15, I was returning home, driving through eastern Moscow. Heavy rains after a snowy sunday. It wasn't snowing at all. It was just raining. As I got to my house, 8nm from Vnukovo, around 12.35, there was almost no rain left. Flights today were mostly in order, no big delays. Heavy winds in the West-East direction. Lately, runway 24 is mostly used for take offs while runway 01 for landings. Anyone knows where was the crash? I saw nothing, although it was a 4 minutes drop off visit to Vnukovo, but i deeply checked in the around and couldn't find a single piece of aircraft, smoke, nothing. I was there at 11am.

Hard to believe there would be no sign of some debris there the morning after.  And it would be nice to see what the plow looks like now.

In other words, we getting some conflicting information. Sorting out the factual information from the misinformation, or possible disinformation, is the key. There is a difference. Proving 'disinformation' is always the hardest.

One way to guess is an analysis of where stories about the event are taking viewers/readers.  Right now almost all the stories are blaming a drunken cartoonish Russian plow driver.  They are also keying on the notion that de Margerie was against isolating Russia with punishing sanctions due to Ukraine, ie, why would a friend of Pooty Poot get rubbed out in Moscow?  But there's also this:

Total is a major shareholder in Novatek, Russia's largest independent natural gas producer. The two companies were planning to develop a massive liquified natural gas reserve in Siberia.

But the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine in July prompted Total to suspend buying additional shares in Novatek.

So as oil prices crater (less cash for Russia and the Middle East) perhaps Vlad couldn't twist his arm into more positive action.  Things are getting strange out there.

Speaking of oil, a few stories are also mentioning de Margerie and Total Oil's roles in the Iraq "Oil for Food" program where he was suspected of helping the Saddam regime sell oil on the underground markets to get around UN/US sanctions, charges of which the company was only recently cleared.  But take a look at this from the OFF memory hole and it gets weirder (added emphasis):

Thirty percent of the oil vouchers were issued to beneficiaries in Russia, including individual officials in the president’s office, the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian Communist Party, members of the Russian parliament, and the oil firms Lukoil, Gazprom, Zarubezhneft, Sibneft, Rosneft, and Tatneft.

Fifteen percent of the beneficiaries were French, including a former interior minister, the Iraqi-French Friendship Society, and the oil company Total.

Yes, both the Russians and French were helping Saddam back in the day so combined with the abovementioned bits of history it would seem to make the West, and not Russia, prime suspects for sabotage.  Then again, if something nefarious is up in Russia it doesn't necessarily always have to originate in Putin's office.  Their investigations committee is already laying blame!  But sometimes accidents just happen--even in Russia. 

MORE  10/23/14

More details are coming from Russia regarding the fallout from the crash.  Seems the plow driver has been arrested and detained.  His lawyer claims he wasn't drunk at the time and that tests to confirm his blood-alcohol will take 5-7 days rather than within 1 day as is usual, however this report claims it was released today and measured 0.06. That's below US standards for drunk driving, but airport operations require zero point zero.  Russian authorities have also picked up a couple of air traffic controllers, a maintenance supervisor, and a 'flights director', while the top two airport officials have resigned.    

Still no pictures of the plow.  The driver claims he was part of a convoy of plows heading across the airport grounds when something happened to his truck and he stopped to get out and look.  He claims he couldn't hear anything due to the roar of his plow engine and didn't realize he was on the active runway.  He claims he tried to contact his foreman on radio (which would probably not be on the same frequency as ATC ground, but one that ATC should monitor). Then the crash.

He seems to have been driving when the crash occurred, as there are indications he got back in the truck to start again but couldn't see the other trucks.  Based on the photo of the aircraft wreckage the plane had obviously taken off and perhaps gotten slightly airborne, since it somehow ended up inverted, therefore the plow driver was on the active runway.  Since he was completely unharmed it's likely the impact was a glancing blow, perhaps to a wing or the tail, since pictures show the Falcon jet's nose landing gear extended as normal and largely undamaged.  That scenario would explain the final resting position better than the airport PR director's initial remarks.

Still, we have a situation where a 10 year veteran airport maintenance operator was bumbling around on an active runway and nobody noticed.  That's where the notion of alcohol comes in--it could be used to explain the driver's actions quite well.  Of course it's Russia, don't people get up in the morning blowing a point six?  

Even with some booze it's hard to imagine that a plow driver could be that stupid and wouldn't have been monitoring ground frequencies to know whether there was any air traffic around.  Then again, one can imagine a haphazard operation where a fleet of plows were cleared to cross, the last driver was a bit loopy and stopped after hearing a sound--not knowing where he was because he was only following the truck in front of him because it was foggy, then getting back in and driving fast trying to catch back up but not wanting to talk on the radio then getting clipped by the departing aircraft before catching up to his comrades. He could have also been outside the truck when ATC gave the Falcon jet clearance, which was possibly given by an ATC trainee.  Most accidents are caused by a compounding of separate errors.

So, while conspiracies can never be totally dismissed in a country run by a former KGB officer the theory of negligence must first be eliminated, and right now it's looking pretty strong.

Aviation Update

The temperature screening at five airports has finally commenced, although it's doubtful the program will have a very soothing affect on the public at large, especially after today's Ebola hearings in Congress.



The question of why the administration has not restricted travel to the hot zones was asked of White House spokesman Josh Earnest today, and briefly provided a moment of levity..




But the question remains open.  The administration seems fine with taking a risk that some asymptomatic Ebola victims will arrive in America despite the screening efforts, expressing confidence the system will protect Americans if they later present at the local hospitals with symptoms.  This despite the FUBAR with index patient zero, Mr. Duncan, in Dallas.  That's not a very comforting assurance.  It almost has the impression of a cost-benefit analysis, ie, a few American deaths are worth trading to prevent a collapse of west African governments, which could lead to a bigger world problem.  Just hope you're not collateral damage.

But isn't there almost a de facto travel ban in place already?  Here's some information on current airline services into the hot zone countries...

For Monrovia, Liberia, it appears there are only two: Brussels Airlines, with flights to Brussels, and  Royal Air Maroc, with flights to Freetown and Casablanca.  It's a bit humorous to see that Delta suspended its much-heralded flights from JFK to Monrovia on August 31st due to "weak passenger demand".

For Freetown, Sierra Leone,  the same two still flying to Monrovia, Brussels and Royal Air Maroc to the same destinations as from Monrovia.

And for Conakry airport in Guinea, it appears Air France with service to Paris, Royal Air Maroc with service to Casablanca, and Brussels Airlines with service to Brussels is the extent of it.

So it's not like Obama could use his pen and phone and shut down Brussels Airlines, Royal Air Maroc and Air France operations to west Africa.  As of this minute there's no American flag carrier service to this area already and no non-stop flights on any airlines.  Maybe that's why they can come across so cavalierly in opposing a travel ban--it's basically in place already.  In today's hearings (and other media questioning) CDC chief Frieden stressed that a ban would make it harder to track people arriving here from the hot zone countries and cause a widespread world outbreak.  Thing is, the surrounding countries have already imposed bans, which they credit with keeping the spread under control so far.

That doesn't leave many ways for sick people in the hot zone countries to get out.  They can't drive out of their area and can only fly to 3 or 4 cities if they can get past screeners.  In other words, maybe US authorities feel they have the few conduits of passage well viewed, perhaps even with the assistance of FBI or DHS tracking.


Of course, if law enforcement or transportation agencies are actually monitoring people it didn't work too well for Mr. Duncan.  One could even question why he wasn't moved to one of the top-notch Ebola treatment facilities as have all the other American cases so far.  Were they rigidly trying to follow a stupid protocol that was later changed, or was someone trying to send a subtle message to foreigners that coming here via deception might not result in a good outcome?   The Pentagon was only yesterday warning about a mass migration across our borders should Ebola spread to our southern neighbors, which would be based on the notion that once here they would have to be treated.   But treated how, like Duncan or the Americans?  

But let's end this on a positive note.  We are coming closer to the end of the 21 day incubation period for Mr. Duncan's friends and relatives who at last check were spending some quality time in an undisclosed quarantine location.  As far as the media has been told none of them have come down with the virus.  Also, nobody on the plane with Duncan came down with it.  So it's entirely possible the public quasi-panic will begin to subside soon if none of the casual contacts with Duncan or his nurses show any symptoms.  Other nurses or doctors working close to the patients coming down with it would not spread the same panic. 

Taken another way, if in a few weeks Obama takes full credit for solving Ebola that will actually be a good thing for the nation because it will mean, 1) we know more about the virus and how to handle it, and 2) it didn't become a widespread outbreak, none of which would be blamed on Obama if things get worse.  Politically speaking, this good news would not likely affect the mid-term elections very much because people expect the government to act when bad things come up and everyone knows the initial reaction was poor. If things get worse nobody will care about the elections.

BANS..   10/16/14

To co-opt an Obama phrase, let me be clear.  This blog called for Visa/passport bans weeks ago.  Those are not travel bans.  As pointed out above, there are no US carriers running flights into the hot zones anyway.  Flights will still run if the overseas airlines want to run them.  That's why the State Department's incessant argument that banning travel would cause huge problems in fighting the disease there deserves a big "how"?  The only thing that would change would be the delay of people in the hot zones getting into the US.  Run a quarantine, like the relatives of the Dallas index patient.  How f-ing hard is that?  We've heard our military will be subject to quarantines.

Simply standing there at the podium and arrogantly refusing while admitting that as many as 100 Visa applications are coming in per day in the hot zones is beyond the pale.

Aviation Update

Slowly but surely the Ebola traveler has been named and his itinerary published: Monrovia-Brussels to a United flight leaving September 19th; connection at Washington Dulles on the 20th with a flight to DFW.

Meanwhile this guy.....

...has been telling everyone not to worry because Ebola can only be transmitted when a virus carrier displays symptoms.  There was 'zero risk of transmission' on the flights.  I am not questioning that. 

But I do question a few things.  The Dallas victim was able to board a flight after coming in direct close contact with a woman who had the disease and died.  He knew he was a possible carrier and might come down with the disease at any minute.  Matter of fact that's probably why he got on the flight to "visit relatives" in Dallas--an attempt to save himself.  We have better hospitals.  Was it only dumb luck he stayed symptom free all the way to Texas?

In other words, what happens when someone boards one of these long international flights, shows no signs of fever upon boarding, but comes down with a fever in-flight?  Can they or will they be isolated onboard?  Will countries or airports refuse landing rights if the flight crew tries to divert or declare a medical emergency to offload the sick passenger?  Could we have some kind of JV version of  "Pandora's Clock"?

Or let's say the person begins to come down with the early symptoms during the last leg of the flight but manages to hide it until deplaning, then gets off and walks through the airport, opening doors, touching walls and bathroom fixtures, sneezes, etc, on the way to customs?  Or gets through customs undetected and continues out into the world outside?  Seems unlikely the CDC could track down everybody he/she came in contact with. 

Now, everyone knows we are the beacon of freedom around the world and nobody wants to restrict the freedom to travel.  But we have a border.  Non-citizens traveling to the United States from the Ebola hot zone countries need visas to enter the US.  Should anything be done in this area?  Evidently there is a test to determine if someone has the virus before they are symptomatic (if the story is correct) so why not insist all passengers to the US get the test as a requirement for a travel visa, at least for awhile until the outbreak is quelled?  Some countries have already required entry visas to address this, but today the State Department was asked and the spokeslady, with a smirk, said they are not considering any such restrictions.  Let's hope they don't kill anyone with PC.

Aviation Update

Regarding the eleven Libyan aircraft that supposedly disappeared from Tripoli's main airport, is this real?   Should people worry?   Maybe, maybe not.

Here's some scuttlebutt from a pilot forum..

Basically, all A/C that have been trapped in Tripoli when fighting started mid-July are either destroyed (that's sure for an AAW A330) or at least damaged. As the airport has been a war zone for more than six weeks with no access to civilians, it is very hard to get a status on those A/C. It is reasonable to presume that they are at least damaged (A/C structure is not very bullet-tolerant or RPG-tolerant) and unable to be used in any operation (including "9/11 style"). It is estimated that AAW and LAA have each less than half of their fleet still fit to fly.

In other words, the aircraft at the airport, such as the one in the picture above, aren't going anywhere any time soon.  One of the commenters linked to a Google document that listed an inventory, showing that most of the planes based in Libya are either destroyed by the fighting or flown out to Malta or Paris. But not all of them are accounted for.  "Plane spotters", those guys/gals who like to watch planes and tend to track 'tail numbers', have been talking about this for a month now, mostly saying "not to worry".

This ties in with what Snopes says about the issue:

However, there have been no statements from the State Department, the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, or any other authority warning of stolen airliners. The national threat level has not been raised. Algerian and Moroccan military and air defense, already on high alert due to the unrest just across their borders with Libya, would undoubtedly have noticed multiple flights of unidentified passenger aircraft.

Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn't.   If the aircraft flew south through Libya into Mali without a transponder turned on, for instance, few would notice. MH370 flew through radar coverage as a primary target (no data tag) and the operators missed it.  The Snopes article was also bizarrely weak on facts to support a 'probably false' conclusion.  It's interesting too that several of the Airliners.net discussion threads on the missing airplanes have been pulled from their site.  

Snopes largely based their 'probably false' judgment on the fact the US Government hasn't raised any red flags yet.  But would they?   Especially if governments knew that jihadists had possession of eleven commercial aircraft?   Seems that could be panic-inducing.  A more reasonable assumption is that western intelligence would be quietly trying to find the aircraft to seize them back, or worse case, blow them up on the ground.

Another problem with the Snopes piece is it claims these news stories were based on rumors out of North Africa that somehow got passed along and were taken as facts by western newspapers.  But in reading the various reports they all cite "intelligence agencies" or a "US official":

A U.S. official familiar with the reports told the Beacon: "There are a number of commercial airliners in Libya that are missing. We found out on September 11 what can happen with hijacked planes."

Snopes did not include that dynamic in their report, ie, that western intelligence was actually getting their info from the newspapers, who were reporting as gospel rumors out of Africa.  Let's hope western intelligence isn't relying on outfits like USA Today or World Net Daily in getting their info, because if so they need to change their moniker to drop the word "intelligence".

At the same time, the respected Janes Defense doesn't think much of this threat, which may say something.  There is a lot of hype going on with ISIS, Libya, and the coming anniversary of 9/11.   It's not outside the realm of possible for the mainstream news orgs to consider a story like this "too good to check", at least until later. 


Bottom line, more information is needed before any 'probably false' or 'head for the hills' judgments can be made.   If "western intelligence" is truly concerned perhaps everyone else should be as well--but so far we only have some heightened military awareness from Libya's neighbors (standard considering the capital and main airport have fallen) and some leaks.  Assuming this to be a credible threat assumes a lot, but eleven airliners is far too close to the number projected in Project Bojinka to outright dismiss any plots.  As we saw with 9/11, they never give up on their plots.