The crescent of confusion

It's an understatement to say the Middle East is an enigma. Such has been the case for eons, and the situation today certainly fits the bill. Therefore, deciphering reality based on media reports and/or remarks from government or terrorist spokesmen represents quite the challenge.

Unfolding events have forced everyone to choose sides, or shall we say to reveal sides already chosen. Shias across the region have refused to condemn the actions of Hizballah in favor of boilerplate partisan rhetoric. One such Shia is Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki, who recently sucker-punched America:

The hostile acts against Lebanon will have effects on the region and we are not far from what is going on in Lebanon,' al-Maliki said. 'We will speak with the United Nations and American government to call for a cease-fire quickly.'

Meanwhile, a Saudi cleric had previously issued a fatwa calling for true Muslims to not support Hizballah or their aggressions.

To top it off, Saddam is sending secret letters through his attorney blaming everything on Bush and calling for Arab unity in expelling the invaders and pushing Israel sea-ward. But are his former followers listening?

It's quite possible Saddam is simply trying to stir up trouble to save his own hide, but we know he's harbored past visions of grandeur about his regional role, so it's hard to tell.

Sometimes I wonder if any of the players themselves know what the hell's going on. Bush's buttered roll chat with Blair didn't really inspire confidence in me, unless the little chat was by design.

Is there an endgame? That's pretty near an unanswerable question, and we know where most of the MSM pundits will come down, but the actual reality might be far less ominous than some think. Perhaps we can presume some things:

..As to Iran, their Shia leadership might be somewhat frozen for several reasons. Reason one, 130K US troops remain between them and the Holy Lands. Reason two, they are reluctant to overtly take ownership and speak for Hizballah, and reason tre--they haven't finished their bomb yet and are in jeopardy of UNSC sanctions.

..As to Kofi Annan and the UN, they are partially frozen due to the ongoing Oil For Food scandal, which is exposing the tangled web known as back-channel diplomacy.

..As to the Sunnis, they are also in a pickle. Although Saddam wants them to unify against America and Israel, they just can't bring themselves to lie down with the Shia dogs, even though both hate the Zionists.

The Iraqi Sunnis have also been put into a position of literally depending on America to protect them from Shia militias. Their insurgent militias may be taking a wait-and-see approach, pausing until bin Laden gives them some direction. Thing is, if orders come down from the bearded one to stand with Hizballah over Lebanon it would seem to have the rather ironic effect of re-uniting the warring parties in Iraq. Perhaps that's why some people think there will not be a tape anytime soon. Chances are they'll remain on the sidelines regards Lebanon.

In an odd way we appear to have everyone right where we want them. With enough parties frozen Israel can continue draining the terror swamp that surrounds them.

They could easily get greedy and blow it--international leftists are already accusing them of such--but the alternative of letting a stealthy Hizballah continue to grow while their parent busily tries to acquire a nuke--using that same terrorist arm as a deterrent--didn't appear a good choice.

Clear as mud, huh?

SHAKIRA 7/23/06

Has spoken. Her father is of Lebanese-Christian descent. No rational person could disagree with her comments, but similar feelings have existed as long as war has existed.

Whenever one side has a goal that includes the elimination of the other, or their belief system, war is inevitable. Peace only comes through positions of strength or leverage. The "can't we all just get along" philosophy is very compelling, but in this case it's something that works to Hizballah's benefit in the long run.

MORE 7/23/06

According to the Times (via World Net Daily) the "Iranian street" is hardly thrilled with the new Mid East flare-up

“We Iranians have a saying,” said Ali Reza Moradi, 35, a portrait artist who works in a small booth downtown. “We should save our own house first and then save the mosque. A lot of people think this way. The government should help its people first, and then help the people in Lebanon.”

The average Ali thinks just like the average Joe here, neither understanding the importance of foreign policy. But the Iranian give-away is easy to understand. They are the only Shia power in a region surrounded by Sunnis. That's why, as CNN's Christine Amanpour recently noted

Rather, word is gradually being leaked in Israel that something different is afoot. A leading Israeli newspaper reports one moderate Arab leader with no relations to Israel sending the government a secret message to carry on, wipe-out Hezbollah for us once and for all. They are all mostly Sunni, and they would say that about the powerful Shiite resistance group tied to powerful Shiite Iran.

Makes one have more respect for the Secretary of State.

Everyone is still waiting for the bearded one to weigh in on this brouhaha. Perhaps his speechwriter is having trouble finding a way to support Persian Shias without ticking off 'the base'. But more likely he'll pause until international pressure for a cease-fire, stirred into a frenzy by the MSM, makes Israel and America look like the bullies on the block. If he really wanted a cease-fire or wanted to show support for Hizballah, the tape would already be out.