Hold your fire?

Amidst the scaremongering from cable news about a new ballistic weapon the winds of change appear to be blowing.

Bush-Blair's new cease-fire proposal sounds like an excellent move, especially in light of Hizballah's recent willingness to broker a deal with the Lebanese parliament. Looks like the time for diplomatic gamesmanship has begun.

The UN plan calls for an immediate cease-fire, but only under condition that the Lebanese take over their own country's security as they were mandated to do in resolution 1559. Hizballah's willingness to talk might stem from the meeting Nasrallah had in Damascus the other day with his Iranian and Syrian puppetmasters. Perhaps they blinked?

As to al-Qaeda, any cease-fire would now be seen as extremely embarrassing. They cleverly waited to issue one of their PR tapes until they thought a deal was off, then surprised everyone by calling for a massive jihad on behalf of Lebanese Shiite "brothers". If those brothers now turn around and lay down their arms in agreements with the Zios and Infidels it would represent a major loss of face.

Perhaps that's why number two issued the tape. But even if bin Laden later attempts to turn the tables by issuing a tape critical of the Shiite dogs for dealing with the enemy, such a thing furthers their religious divide, which helps us.

There's also a fringe political benefit for the republicans. If this plan comes together over the weekend the democrats might be forced to drop their opposition to John Bolton in his confirmation rehearing, even though he does look somewhat evil with that mustache. Note--none of the above applies to Howard Dean.

One more perk. Any cessation of fighting in Lebanon will put Iran's nuclear aspirations back on the front page where they belong. The deadline is coming up soon. Yes it will also put Iraq back there, but the administration has been quietly increasing the force lately. Besides, a peace deal in Lebanon might put similar pressure on the warring parties to do likewise in Iraq.

With so many positives in play, the only wild card looks to be Israel. If they refuse the deal it's back to the bombardment and we'll be forced to take their side. Rice should make clear it's in their long-term best interests to deal with Hizballah if any such deal includes a disarmament and eventual Lebanese control of the border. A lot appears to be riding on Rice's visit.

Bush and Blair held their meeting in the White House today, then took some questions. This blog would be remiss without commending Tony Blair's excellent replies to the various questions. He deftly placed this entire flare-up into proper context with the greater WoT, an ability our own leader misunfortunately lacks.

SO MUCH FOR THAT 7/30/06

Foolish. Expecting any change in the age old Israeli-Palestinian paradigm, that is. The terrorist motto is "when something works, stick with it", and they certainly are. Fire from the civilian building, draw fire, then run out the door leaving the women and children to become the martyrs.

Too bad Israel couldn't have skated through the weekend with limited firing, a sort of unofficial cease-fire, to bide time until Rice got through with Lebanon. Now Rice looks grossly ineffective and the terrorists look sympathetic. Snookered again.

They seem to have two options. Agree to an immediate cease-fire, letting Rice save some face but taking it in the shorts. Get a multi-national force in to take pressure off their actions while keeping the rockets on the ground. Or two, say the heck with the world and just take southern Lebanon and Gaza back. Do you see any other options?