Setting the stage

Christmas traditionally brings the noble calls for peace on earth, good will towards men, a wonderful sentiment that usually gets erased by events within days. This year, if recent stories are to be believed, the events might involve Iran.

Aside from the obvious decision by the UN Security Council to impart sanctions on Tehran, other strange happenings have happened in the past few days hinting at a dustup with the Ayatollahs.

First, there was a decision by a Federal Judge (the same one who presides over the FISA court) to hold Iran responsible in part for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing. This amazing story got limited press in light of the obvious implication that Iran perpetrated an act of war on the US that was never addressed.

Next the US military detained two Iranian officials in Baghdad presumably for helping militias kill US troops. The Shiite-dominated Iraqi government didn't care much for this act, probably because the raid took place at the SCIRI headquarters, whose Badr gang leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim only recently returned from a visit to meet Bush in Washington.

Late last week there was hope the Shiites might agree to crack down on the death squads. A delegation was sent to Najaf to get the blessing of the big cheese, but shortly thereafter word came back that Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani had returned Bush's Christmas card with a big red no. The result--reconfirmed support for al-Sadr and the militias.

Oddly enough the British raided a police station in Basra today, killing seven and rolling up a death squad. Said the New York Times:

Residents said that people were afraid to challenge them because they were backed by powerful militia groups including the Mahdi army, which is controlled by the rebel cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

Beginning to see a pattern? Harry and Nancy are only a week away from controlling the Congressional gavels.

Perhaps not as obvious but surely connected, Bill Roggio's trip report on his embed in the Sunni triangle suggests the US relationship with Sunni tribal elders is a lot better than we've been led to believe. Those leaders have big fears that Bush will execute the Baker/Hamilton deployment strategy, which would leave them at the mercy of AQ and Badr/Mahdi death squads due to their past cooperation. That is, if we can believe them.

So, as the world eagerly awaits Bush's new plan forward perhaps some of these events might foretell his direction. Debate has raged for months over whether the US would be forced to take sides in the sectarian contest triggered by the Golden Mosque attack but our attempts to force Maliki to unify have largely failed. We've been told that only leaves two options--a Murtha-like retreat to the horizon or a McCain-like escalation. Perhaps Bush has a plan C.

We know the way forward must also include Iran and Syria, but if Bush chooses to ignore the ISG withdrawal/dialogue option that leaves the opposite. He doesn't have much time, since the Democrats are liable to cut his war funding if polls continue in the same direction and with a looming election. Iraq is a boat anchor for both parties in that respect.

In light of the ISG report and Bush's poll numbers Iran must believe themselves to be ten foot tall and bulletproof at the moment. It wouldn't be unthinkable to think they've already threatened us through intermediaries of their destabilization intentions should we attack their nukes. If so, the recent detentions of their operatives in Baghdad might be a tad eyebrow-raising for the Ayatollahs. Sort of a modern version of "nuts" coming from Washington. You gotta believe there are more than a few in the Pentagon that would like a piece of Iran, harking back to the burning helicopters in the Iranian desert in 1980 followed by the smoldering Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983. No need to add Khobar Towers, our response is past due.

With all the focus on Iran we can't forget this guy. He's still got a lot of friends in low places who might not take kindly to his impending demise. Question is, which side will they be on?

ADD IT TO THE LIST 12/25/06

A little over one year ago Germany released legacy Hizballah terrorist Mohammed Ali Hamadei on some sort of funky parole from his 'life sentence' for air piracy, kidnapping and murder.

Americans, such as the family members of Navy Diver Robert Stethem (whom Hamadei murdered on TWA847 in 1985) were both puzzled and outraged. Germany will not extradite to countries with capital punishment, so they just let him go. The family pleaded with Bush to intervene but all they've seen so far is Hamadei's picture being added to the FBI's most-wanted terrorist list.

Consider it just another Iranian-backed act of terrorism against the US gone unpunished. They're piling up.