Door number two

In the midst of the election hubbub some very interesting things occurred in Iraq. Just after Saddam was sentenced the AP got word through channels that former Saddam number two and now most-wanted Saddamist Izzat al-Douri had ordered attacks against the invaders to cease. That would be us. That was followed by a similar message from Saddam's lawyer, only days after his threat about 'rivers of blood' if Saddam were to be given death.

The change of tune included Saddam himself. The last words out of his mouth called for Iraqis to kill their enemies. Not a soul on earth believes he underwent an epiphany on the way back to his cell and suddenly saw the light of peace, love and understanding, so the 180 was certainly weird. Was it more theatre, or something else?

Some believe we've been cozying up with the former Ba'athists and Sunnis of late in order to acquire that coveted plane ticket out of Dodge, but also to put the brakes on an ever growing coalescence of Shiite power in the region. Iran's growing influence can't please the US, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Emirates or Israel, and to illustrate the point we've seen a recent series of closed door meetings going on in Amman to address this concern:

The reported al-Douri order coincided as well with talks currently taking place in Jordan between Americans and insurgent groups, including Baath Party officials, according to several of Iraq’s Sunni lawmakers and government officials.

One Sunni lawmaker said the Baathists told U.S. officials they realized they could not take back control of government but that the fighting could not stop without their agreement. The parliament member suggested that Baathists were trying to strike a deal for amnesty or leniency.

An expert with local knowledge says not so fast, that the insurgent leaders likely won't listen to al-Duri and this signals they are running out of money and becoming desperate after seeing Saddam's sentence. But if that's true why deal with these people at all? We know that Maliki recently ok'd a plan to allow Ba'athists back in the bureaucracy, but deals are usually made only when absolutely necessary and only with parties holding cards.

The Saddamists have a card--their part of the insurgency--but we know it's not the only facet of the violence there. Case in point, as soon as the curfew was lifted the killing started again, mainly death squad activity. Why give anything to the Ba'athists if it won't stop the killing? That suggests there are other cards. Back in the day everyone thought Saddam had WMD deterrence cards up his sleeve but facts on the ground have so far proven otherwise. There's a small possibility that al-Duri is still running that game on Saddam's behalf, which works well with the hidden WMD thesis and might explain why he is number one on Iraq's most wanted list.

Far-fetched? Perhaps the Iraq Study Group knows the answer. It's interesting that Bush's current nominee for Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, was a member. The participants have been busy running scenarios in an effort to find practical solutions, and soon we'll see what's behind door number two.