The murder of Gemayel

Whodunit? Many have pointed to Syria. On one hand their Foreign Minister was meeting in al-Maliki in Baghdad to discuss re-establishing diplomatic relations, while on the other rumors were flying they ordered the murder. We know Assad and the Iranian Ayatollahs want Syria's influence reestablished in Beirut.

The most likely instrument for carrying out the act, Hizballah, wasted no time in feeling sorry or remorseful for the loss of one of their countrymen, deflecting immediate blame towards Israel. Ridiculous, but let's entertain those notions a sec. Why would the Mossad want this?

One possible reason might involve American politics. If Israel truly believes we're huddling for a cut and run play they might be approaching near panic mode. It's easy to understand how a defeat in Iraq would affect our reputation and embolden the terrorists and despots, but for Israel the effect would be immediate. Only a few days ago Ahmadinejad was blustering about Israel's inability to launch further attacks.

But such a stunt would be risky. Getting caught would almost ensure our retreat from the region due to political pressure, not to mention the UN sanctions, etc.

What about every Arab's favorite target--the CIA? Based on Nasrallah's blustering and the overall tilt towards the Iranian-Syrian bloc it's not hard to see why we might desire an uprising in Lebanon. But as with the Mossad, the price of getting caught would be astronomically high. Besides, this might be seen as Bush fomenting a coup on his own dad. Now there's a book.

No need to waste much time with the Sunni fiefdoms or Hamas and Fatah. Although they might enjoy seeing Hizballah lose a few notches it would be far too risky to be worth it.

So, if the intel services didn't do it that brings us right back around the the neighborhood bully--the pompous alpha male Nasrallah. He's shown open contempt for Lebanon's democratically elected Lebanese government. They continue smuggling weapons past the UNIFIL force in preparation for another war and don't seem to care much about getting caught. So yes, my vote goes to Hizballah.

But before signing off perhaps we can learn from history. On June 6, 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon and captured Beirut, a war triggered by the assassination attempt on their UK Ambassador Schlomo Argov. The infamous Abu Nidal group was responsible, and Saddam was later implicated because experts believed he was trying to both keep the Israelis at bay and disrupt the Iranians, whom he was fighting at the time. There was a revenge factor as well, since one year earlier on June 7, 1981 Israel took out his reactor at Osirak. Are there any parallels with the actions of today?

MORE 11/23/06

What should we make of this story (via Instapundit) suggesting that Syria's true demands of Baker will be a calling-off of the international investigation into the death of Hariri and non-interference of their actions to subjugate Lebanon in exchange for some window-dressing help in Iraq?

If true (and that's certainly not a given) it would seem to cast doubt on any involvement with the murder of Gemayel based on the blowback in evidence today.

Following a logical line that says Hizballah carried off the hit at the behest of someone, that someone seems more likely to reside in Persia than Damascus. Perhaps it was a warning for Assad not to deal independently with Baker, a reminder of who really wields the power over him right now. If true, it's something Baker can work with.