Some may recognize the name. If you don't, permit me to introduce him. Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com a repository of analysis on developing and existing threats along with links to related resources. He also serves as an analyst for the Northeast Intelligence Network and Tactical Defense Concepts, and is the author of "Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq".Although still a young man, he's been featured on websites such as Front Page Mag and WND, and has been a guest on the Dennis Prager show among others. Here's what I wrote about him back in March.
With many viewing the upcoming elections as a referedum on the Iraq war it seems appropriate to take a closer look at Saddam's WMDs and connections to terrorism, a subject which Ryan has extensively researched. He was gracious enough to answer a few questions, as presented below:
1. Who do you believe is currently running the insurgency in Iraq? Where are they located?
There different elements to the insurgency. There is the radical Shiite element, led by Moqtada al-Sadr. This is coordinated by the Al-Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. There is the Al-Qaeda element, now led by Abu Ayyub al-Masri and the Mujahideen Shura Council (the MSC and Masri are having internal problems, though).
Then there is the ex-Baathist element. This element, backed by Syria, is said to be run by relatives of Saddam Hussein and members of his al-Tikriti tribe. No one knows for a fact if there is a central figure, although Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, who some say is dead but there really is no proof, is known to have fled to Damascus. There is also the criminal element, as the insurgency has become a source of income for some.
2. When Hussein Kamel defected in 1995 he blew the lid on a biological
weapons program. Has there been any intelligence on the location of the
unaccounted for stores of anthrax, bochulinum toxin or other bioweapon
precursors?
Precursor chemicals of various kinds have been found. My sources that worked for the Iraq Survey Group tell me they are pretty confident that at least some unilateral destruction of chemical and biological weapons occurred. The truth is that we don't know how much was destroyed, or when.
We must remember that only 2% of the suspected sites have been searched, and four interesting sites said to be holding WMD by several Iraqi sources have not been looked at yet, according to Dave Gaubatz, a federal agent sent by the U.S. government to search for WMDs. The story is that after he fingered the sites, the Iraq Survey Group did not have the equipment to do such extensive digging, and never showed up again. The CIA told Gaubatz this year that the sites were never searched because his intelligence was lost during the move of a database out of Prince Sultan Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia.
3. There have been two stories in the media about WMDs being moved to Syria. Are either of them credible?
There are more stories than that. You are referring to General Georges Sada, who was the #2 man in Iraq's air force, and claims to know the two pilots who brought the WMD to Syria. I know several people who know him and find him trustworthy, although some leaks to the media claim his Iraqi sources did not "check out." The other person you mentioned is James Clapper of the CIA's National Imagery Agency.
I have spoken to several people who have confirmed that there are satellite photos showing 18-wheelers going into Syria and being buried. I have spoken to even more people who can at least confirm the cross-border traffic. We also know that in the months before the war began, Iraqi intelligence replaced the border guards on the western border.
General Ali Ibrahim al-Tikriti, a former friend and general of Saddam Hussein, confirmed to me that when he defected in 1990, he knew of a plan in place where Russia would help move the weapons to Syria (or Syrian weapons to Iraq, depending on who was being invaded). Ion Mihai Pacepa, the highest ranking East Bloc defector, confirmed the existence of a plan entitled "Sarindar" or "Emergency Exit" the Russians had developed for the rogue states that possessed weapons programs with Russian fingerprints. To cover their tracks and to win a propaganda victory, Russia would help destroy, move and hide these weapons upon invasion.
Judith Miller reported that an Iraqi scientist who led Coalition forces to buried precursor chemicals claimed that the weapons ingredients were stored in nearby separate compartments in order to allow quick production, but to appear innocent at the same time. The scientist also confirmed that some weapons were destroyed before the invasion, and the rest had gone to Syria. Dave Gaubatz has also confirmed that many Iraqis confirmed the presence of the Russians in Iraq before the invasion, and some Iraqis said the weapons were shipped next door.
Kay and Duelfer have confirmed there was evidence of a transfer, but that they couldn't complete investigation of the possibility due to the security situation. John Shaw, the former deputy undersecretary of defense whose job was to monitor the traffic of armaments during the war, has come out and given details about how Russian units were involved.
An Iraqi intelligence document also describes how the Chinese picked up information of the transfer, asked the Germans about it, who denied it, and then the Germans told the Iraqis. Another released document shows that an Iraqi dissident going by the fake name "Abu Abdullah" reported that 50 trucks entered Syria from Iraq and that a high-level Iraqi working at the embassy in Damascus confirmed it but said to remain quiet.
4. A strange incident occurred in 2003 as American forces were moving in on Baghdad. A car with Russian 'diplomats' was fired on by US soldiers. The Russians claim they were trying to evacuate their last remaining personnel, yet there was never a full-fledged diplomatic uproar from Vladimir Putin. Does anyone know what those Russians were doing in Baghdad?
There were some reports that Saddam Hussein was inside the Russian embassy, although I can not confirm that. The more common thought is that the convoy was picking up intelligence files.
5. Regarding those 500 chemically tipped shells found buried around the country, do you believe Saddam simply "lost track" of them or was he deliberately hiding their presense from UN Inspectors? Have we found all the buried shells?
We simply do not know the answers of this. The artillery shells did not have correct WMD markings, and were hidden among conventional stockpiles, so it is entirely possible the Iraqis lost track of them.
6. Why do you think "Dr. Germ" and "Mrs. Anthrax" were released by the Coalition?
Very good question and I haven't found a good answer. The best answer I've heard was that it had something to do with negotiations with the insurgents.
7. Was there any truth to the premise cited by the Clinton administration that Iraqi WMD scientists were present in the Sudan working at the "aspirin factory" that was bombed in 1998? Is there any evidence that Iraq moved their WMD programs out of the country?
There were consistent reports of Iraqi activity in Sudan starting during the Gulf War. There is still dispute over whether the "aspirin factory" was WMD-related. Stephen Hayes and others have written about it claiming there are indications it was such, although others find it ridiculous. There's no straight, good answer.
8. Avigdor Haselkorn suggests that a concrete-filled Scud missile that landed in Israel during the Gulf War was a warning shot to the west that Saddam could send WMD to Israel on missiles, which he thinks affected the United States' actions towards the end of the war. What is your take on his theory?
General Georges Sada has claimed that Saddam wanted to use WMD on Israel. It was surely a move meant to scare the West. I think the reasons for not taking Saddam out in 1991 were:
1) A fear that Iran would fill the power vacuum
2) The Administration had not planned for a nation-building exercise or a post-regime change scenario and did not want to try it out.
3) The Administration felt that it would squander the coalition it worked so hard to build
4) The Administration felt that Saddam would repress his people, causing outrage and splitting his government, leading to the collapse of his rule (probably due to an internal coup).
And there you have it. My thanks to Ryan for dropping by and sharing his insight here. In closing, I get the feeling the Russians aren't as friendly as it might seem. Maybe, just maybe, they still harbor a little animosity about Afghanistan, or simply don't want us getting a foothold in their little corner of the world.
THREAT FROM THE REAR 11/03/06
I should have asked Ryan about the donkeys:
Iraqi security forces intercepted six donkeys carrying 53 anti-tank mines and an anti-tank rocket near the Iranian border in Iraq, the U.S. military said on Thursday. The bomb team determined that the mines were Soviet and Italian-made. One was set up to be used as a roadside bomb, the military said
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