Erin Burnett of CNN breaks it down..
Conservatives may not like the way she blasphemes the Gipper with a comparison to Obama but she's correct--if the the unemployment rate falls even a little he'll probably be reelected. And that will occur with no small help from the Erin Burnetts of the media, standing by ready to turn any minor trend into another morning in America (that shining city on a hill).
Such will especially be true if the GOP contender is Romney since Mitt's entire platform is based on fixing the economy. He's not a strong conservative, hasn't talked as much about debt as the others, and isn't particularly liked by the Tea Party (who faces a conflict in supporting him). Maybe that's why Donna Brazille claimed he was the Dems' candidate of choice. They know if the economy gets better Mitt will be left to twist in the breeze of all his former flip-flops while explaining why only Massachusetts residents deserve Obamneycare.
PAUL'S VICTORY 1/10/12
Yes I know, Romney won and won big. But in coming in second with over 20 percent Ron Paul's performance has to be scored as a victory. This is the guy everybody ignores! Some are saying he was the beneficiary of an 'operation chaos' like effort by liberal-leaning indies and dems to poison the well, but I don't think that accounted for most of his numbers. A lot of conservatives are simply not satisfied and they like Paul's austerity, at least to some degree. Paul's post-election speech got off to a roaring start--certainly more passionate than Romneybott's--with proclamations about saving liberty (good stuff) but true to his enigma he soon veered off into the fiat currency zone and lost me. But he won't lose his rapid supporters.
And that begs a question--does Paul and his increasing following portend any trouble for Mitt? I think it's sizable enough that if he jumped to a third party run he could scuttle the GOP's chances against Obama, so perhaps he might want something. Is it possible Romney would choose a guy like Paul as a VP? Or even Paul's son Rand? That might turn off some indies but how many? As mentioned, a lot will go for Paul if he decides to bail. As to favorables, Romney should do well with women, better than Paul, but so does Obama. If Romney picks a woman we'll see the same gang tackle as with Palin, especially if the woman is more conservative. If he picks a less conservative woman the Tea Party won't like it. They'd rather see Rand Paul. If he picks someone vanilla like Pawlenty they may put half of America to sleep before election day. Something to think about, at least. Paul has so far been awfully nice to Mitt.