A Plamegame WAG

As the world breathlessly awaits the closing arguments and verdict in the Libby trial, ahem, the speculators have proffered their theories, many focusing on Ari Fleischer. Victoria Toensing described his "pig in a poke" immunity:

That's an old prosecutor's phrase meaning that Fitzgerald granted Fleischer immunity from prosecution without knowing what Fleischer would say.

Tom Maguire plowed the conspiracy field by playfully suggesting Ari was a plant designed to torpedo the case on behalf of Bushco with his circular testimony, made possible only by his immunity deal.

I went deeper (or off the deep end) by suggesting the whole thing was a ruse, designed by Rove as a reaction to the building left wing duststorm over a lack of WMD stockpiles, a charge led by Joe Wilson but supported by many players backstage.

Victory under such a plot might include the following--1) Bush winning re-election, 2) Republicans holding Congress in 2004, 3) no indictments for outing a covert spy, 4) no massive investigations about Iraq weapons, 5) a public exposure of DC media bias and hypocrisy.

This goofy plot might even explain away Armitage's odd behavior. Conventional wisdom says he hated the Bush guys, but we know this mainly thanks to Woodward (more later). We know his boss Colin had massive exposure on the WMD issue and stood to lose as much as Bush and Cheney if they failed to materialize. Is there such a thing as a vocal bagman?

That brings in Woodward. Here's one theory. Woodward was turned by Armitage by feeding him the Plame information knowing he needed continued access for his third book, which would be difficult if he went public. It might also tend to make his previous books look suspect.

Another possibility, even more bizarre--Hollywood Bob was actually an insider from way back, brought into the fold on the real score about the WMDs while doing research for the first book. He was just playing his part by providing reasonable doubt about the testimony of any journalists who might later decide to forget the whole truth and nothing but the truth about their previous exposure to Valery Flame through DC cocktail party chatter, but who couldn't divulge this fact lest they lose their big story and be seen as Democrat shills. Or thereabouts.

In such a high stakes affair a perjury prosecution or two wouldn't be disaster. On the contrary, they could be seen as the cost of doing business. Besides, as we've seen with Clinton and Martha Stewart, perjury ain't what it used to be. If Plame was indeed working in the Iraq section of CPD that sort of speaks for itself, since we'd already removed the threat. Add to that the aforementioned journalists who were spared indictments and it only strengthens the appeal and post-trial op-eds by leaving the witch hunt impression and paving the road to pardon city.

Keep in mind the above could easily unfold outside the realm of whether it was prudent to remove Saddam. This would have been about defense. Rove undoubtedly knew the players behind Wilson were professional political operatives and disgruntled former CIA agents torqued off about Feith's Office of Special Plans. Seems they would need some kind of defensive gameplan.

Rove knew the media couldn't resist a story about itself, which would keep Wilson and his story as the public face of the missing WMDs for years. And what better face to pin to the story than an ex-low level diplomat tagged as an opportunist who was thrown off the Kerry campaign.

All hypothetically speaking, of course. Truth is often more chaotic than conspiracy, and in reality the administration was probably reacting and defending itself on the fly. But I'm hoping those who believe strongly that the towers were blown will at least give this one a shot.