A Pact of Honor

Ed Morrisey's schooner has the lowdown on the "pact of honor" signed between the al-Sadr group and the Sunni Muslim Scholars Association. There's speculation that Bush's conference call yesterday had something to do with this good vibration.

Conventional wisdom says Zarqawi pulled off the attack on the Golden Mosque as opposed to more devout Sunni groups, but my initial theory went deeper by suggesting Saddamites were to blame in an effort to disrupt the trial. Yeah, perhaps a tad simplistic, but commentary such as this seems to lend some credence:

"A lot of Sunni Arab politicians have been working hard towards a government of national unity, but there are a number of spoilers in the Sunni community," said the Middle East project director for the International Crisis Group Joost Hiltermann.

"They would represent a very small minority of violent Salafis who have the access to explosives and the experience within the community

Salafis. Remember who was involved in organizing those Salafi groups before and after the invasion--al-Douri and other 'dead-end' Ba'athists. They would surely know the whereabouts of the good ordnance and might have access to ex-Mukhabarat agents with experience in clandestine operations. Not to mention their goals remain congruent with those of AQ/Bin Laden, at least at the moment.

Meanwhile, the Saddam trial resumes on Tuesday the 28th. Ramsey Clark and crew will be meeting with the Butcher today, and our international flower child had this to say about Saddam's spirits:

"He seemed at peace with himself," Clark said. "He realizes the danger. He may be fatalistic about the outcome, but he's certainly unbowed and maybe when he gets into court he gets ... more emotional than he does among his lawyers."

Sure.

AFTER ALL, IT'S NOT THE "ARAB GULF" 2/26

It's the Persian Gulf. Some believe the Iranians would love that moniker to be accurate. To that effect, today we heard scuttlebutt that Iran might have had a hand in the Shrine bombing. Since the Iraqis picked up 10 suspects today it's probably foolish to speculate further until we learn their identities, but I'll plod ahead anyway. No guts, no glory.

Sure the Iranians are suspects. They can't very well extend their influence with our presence in Iraq, and a stable, democratic Iraq is an even worse-case scenario. But they also stand to lose bigtime by destroying a Shiite Shrine to incite a civil war.

Just think about that for a sec. If discovered such a thing would place them in an even more horrible position than they're in now, and would likely cancel any influence they hope to have on Iraq's future.

If they were involved it seems likely they aren't in league with the main Iraqi Shiite militias, otherwise they'd never have sent al-Sadr to the peace table so fast. Besides, has anyone really made a believable case the Iraqis will accept being controlled by Persians anyway?

Ruling out the Ayatollahs leaves our old friends the Ba'athists next in line on the likely suspects list. They have nothing to lose from a civil war and everything to gain-- back. And as mentioned, Saddam is closer to the gallows than ever.

Andrew Sullivan had a post on some of these roughians yesterday:

"The Iraqi Rabita website reports an interview with a Mahdi militia leader today, quoted as saying: 'Strange things are happening these days. It's true that our guys often act as a bunch of spiteful, criminal thieves going on sprees of sabotage, murder and plundering. But the people who were running the act were clean young men, elegantly dressed, in modern vehicles, carrying the latest weapons, unlike our guys who are usually unkempt ruffians. No one knows where they are now.'"

Realize this commentary came from one of the main Shiite militiamen. These black cape guys could be teams from Iran of course, but they also sound suspiciously like the Fedeyeen.

PASS THE DORITOS, PLEASE 2/27/06

Saddam has ended his hunger strike due to "health concerns". Excuse me, but isn't that sorta the point?

As to any relationship between Uncle Butcher and the Shrine attack, we don't know, but his crack legal team surely didn't let the opportunity slip past:

Dulaimi also said the defense team has submitted a request to postpone the trial because of the security situation in Baghdad and across Iraq, following last week's bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra. Sectarian violence rocked the country for days afterward.

How about that.

HERE'S LOOKIN' AT YOU, ABU 2/27

Reminiscent of Claud Rains' famous line in Casablanca, seems everytime the new Iraqi government has a sticky problem demanding immediate results they go out and "round up the usual suspects". In this case, top Zarqawi aide number 762:

The official, a member of the ministry's counterinsurgency Wolf Brigade, identified the key al-Qaida figure as Abu al-Farouq, who was previously unknown.

If we throw caution to the wind and believe Mr Abu was actually someone of importance rather than just a bone thrown to the masses, discovering his source of funds might be an worthwhile pursuit. Otherwise, they said he's a Syrian, but just because he's Syrian doesn't mean he's a Ba'athist. But it doesn't mean he isn't.

IF IT'S TUESDAY THIS MUST BE DUJAIL 2/28/06

Saddam was remarkably well-behaved during his court appearance today and has returned to his conservative attire, probably in reverence to the Shrine violence. It's fascinating that his persona seems to blow around in the breeze, from wild-eyed crazy boy one day to insolent child wearing pajamas the next to serious defendant today:

Tuesday's session was one of the most orderly since the trial began in October. Saddam and his seven co-defendants entered the court and took their seats silently - in sharp contrast with nearly every other session, which began with Saddam and his half brother Barzan Ibrahim shouting slogans or arguing with the judge.

For the first time in recent memory the press played up the presented evidence first and Saddam's antics next, and that evidence looked pretty bad for team Butcher:

Prosecutors at Saddam Hussein's trial presented a document Tuesday they said was signed by the former leader approving the executions of more than 140 Shiites in southern Iraq after an assassination attempt in the 1980s.

I admit to being somewhat taken aback by his behavior. It's almost as if the Shrine bombing converted him into a more pensive, contrite human being.

Of course, that might have been the intended result. If the Ba'athists were actually involved in blowing up the Shrine with the intention of starting a civil war to get the trial postponed, it certainly back-fired. Therefore acting up in court wouldn't serve much purpose, since Saddam is very aware of how the media coverage relates to public perception. There's no reason to believe today's inaction was anything more than another calculated manuever.

MORE

Heh, according to Radio Free Liberty, Saddam's lawyers might have pulled off the ultimate coup:

The trial was then adjourned until 29 February.

3/1/06

Omar from Iraq the Model was impressed with the documents presented in Saddam's Tuesday trial. According to him the Butcher was rather ashen-faced while the prosecution was rolling out a littany of formal-looking docs on the overhead. Wonder what he thought about today's version, where Saddam made a flaky rebuttal? Faced with all that evidence, all he could say was, paraphrasing, 'they deserved to die because they tried to kill me'. Even the kids, I guess..

The prosecutor presented lists of vehicles that transported 399 Dujail detainees from a Baghdad facility to a desert prison in southern Iraq in 1984. Each handwritten list included the number of the vehicle, the driver's name, and the names and ages of the prisoners carried in them - 25-40 of them in each vehicle.

The names included entire families - women with daughters and sons below the age of 10, even the name of a 3-month-old girl.

Yet, there are still people who want to compare George W. Bush to this man, or say he's worse.