The Zarqawi gambit

What's going on with this new video? Zarqawi is now fully visible, no mask, running around in the desert looking like GI Joe. And yes, it's definitely him (or the person we've been told is him). No CIA photo analysts needed--this blog alone has posted enough pictures of his ugly mug to verify his identity, including another one here.

Before proceeding further we need some clarification. It seems ridiculous to point out--but this tape is propaganda. I'm not saying the left or MSM won't say that, they just don't say it enough. But let them discuss DoD campaigns to buy access in Iraqi newspapers or reviews of Bush war speeches and just watch how easily it flows off the tongue.

As to Z-man, just a month ago we were told that the most wanted man in Iraq had been ostracized by his own--in effect 'busted down to a private' by the Shura Council of Mujahadeen in Iraq and removed from the political committee. The Counterterrorism Blog refined that a bit:

At the time, observers in the West thought this was a rejection of Zarqawi as a leader of al Qaida. In fact this was a move by other Jihadists to distance themselves from the misdeeds of al Qaida-Iraq. The "Leadership" didn't criticize Bin Laden per se, but said Zarqawi is deflecting energies by waging an indiscriminate religious war (takfiri) against the Shiites.

Previous stories had also claimed that Z-man had been driven into the hills by Sunni tribal leaders for apparently allowing too much collateral damage to fellow Muslims. Surely we can't forget that Golden Mosque thing.

So what can we make out of this recent move? Can it be coupled with Bin Laden's audio and the Egyptian attacks? Perhaps, but I think it illustrates al Qaeda's desperation over events in Iraq. Z-man's video was chock full of threats against participators in such, including so-called "liberal Sunnis", ie, anyone not a Wahhabist or Salafist.

Amidst all the analytical hoopla you'll probably not see much about the connections between Zarqawi and Ba'athist/Saddamist elements. Z-man's goals have always been simpatico with Saddam's, who was kind enough to invite him to the country before the invasion.

Whether Z-man actually later became a loose cannon is a good question and not easily answerable. Saddam criticized the Golden Mosque attack and it's hard to believe he would have approved of results of the Jordanian attack, either. It's quite possible they pulled him out of the game temporarily, but decided to re-enter him after the progress made with the new government.

By the way, just yesterday CNN headlined a story about Bush not getting a poll bump from his latest round of Iraq speeches (as if the whole thing were just a game). Wonder if they'll do likewise when this latest round of AQ propaganda falls flat?