Tipping point

Yep, it's a rather tired cliche, but perhaps still the most appropriate to describe the situation in Iraq and the greater Middle East at the moment.

President Bush and Prime Minister Blair stood up in front of the press and talked about Iraq Thursday evening. Both said the words they needed to say, and answered questions.

Both appeared a little weary, but to be fair, Blair probably had some jet lag. Whether planned or off-the-cuff, both men admitted some of their mistakes. The media will happily run to press with their scoop, but perhaps the scoop was part of the plan.

For example, Blair just returned from Baghdad where he spoke with the new government, coalition leaders, troops and few Iraqi civilians. Was the serious and conciliatory tone of the press conference a reaction to what he learned on his trip? Clearly the jury is still out on whether Iraq can succeed.

Speak of the devil, the Saddam Hussein jury is still out as well. After his court session today, a CNN reporter managed to get a behind the scenes view of the man who still considers himself the president, after all the cameras had been unplugged:

A few other journalists and I excitedly crouch, crowd and climb chairs to see the forbidden. We see a court now informal with the departure of the chief judge and a behind-the-scenes glimpse of Hussein. His defense lawyers stand in line to greet him.

One by one, faces filled with a kind of reverence, they kiss his cheeks and exchange words. Hussein looks pleased and relaxed, smiling and chuckling with his new cohorts. For just this moment, the Saddam Hussein of old is back, literally holding court.

One might take his enthusiasm juxtaposed with Thursday's somber press conference as a scorecard of the war, but there's no need to get all 'Murtha' about it yet.

After all, we're still trying to win this war. Bush and Blair's genuineness was perhaps an attempt to recapture the confidence of the masses before it's too late. Right now the average American, Brit, or Aussie parent might conclude this war is not worth losing a son or daughter over. Without WMDs many question the need.

But for others it's more. It's about solving the case of who really attacked us on 9/11 and why. Despite the 9/11 Commission Report we don't conclusively know the answer to that yet. Dan Darling at the Weekly Standard reminds us that Iran was mentioned in that report, with the commissioners recommending further investigation. Middle East experts such as Ken Timmermann and Michael Ledeen have speculated on the possibility Iran harbored al Qaeda, even Bin Laden, both before and after the attack.

Another who made that claim was Yossef Bodansky. Hardly a neocon cheerleader, his book "The Secret History of the Iraq War", written in 2004, took Bush to task for many of the mistakes that have led to our current predicament in 2006.

However, he also detailed the connections between Iraq, Syria, Iran and various and sundry terrorist groups both before and after 9/11, including an explanation of the pre-planned insurgency and necessary symbiosis between Ba'athist hooligans and the Islamists.

If we tie up all the loose ends a case might be made that the 9/11 attackers were more than just a score of martyrs and their eccentric cave dweilling handler, but rather a network of states with common enemies. If true, western leaders must feel this fact is not suitable for public consumption, probably for good reason.

However, the byproduct of such a narrow focus (and a robust insurgency) has led to a diminution of support for the Iraq effort. Perhaps that's why Tony Blair is here to see Bush, and perhaps why he said the following at the press conference:

And one of the things I think that certainly for our people they find most difficult to understand is they will say: Well, is it -- can it be worth everything that we are doing? I mean, it's such a huge sacrifice that is being made. Can it be worth it?

And I think the answer to that is: It is worth it to those engaged in this violence and terrorism to try to stop us, and we should have the same faith and confidence in our determinations to succeed, as they have in their determination to make us fail.

On the dawn of Memorial Day weekend our western leaders are huddling over strategy while trying to put their best face forward in a show of unity and steadfastness in the face of adversity. Iraq is at a tipping point, and with it the entire Middle East. Their leadership and motivation will determine the outcome.

HADITHA 5/27/06

Hate to do it, but have to pose the question--was the rather somber and serious Bush/Blair press conference and subsequent rare apologies to the press on earlier mistakes an attempt to get out ahead (or salvage our war efforts) before the Haditha can of worms explodes all over the media? Just say it ain't so.