Might as well blame it on Neptune

According to an article in the Chicago Tribune this morning, SUV exhaust is drowning the tiny pacific island of Malasiga.

Well, it doesn't exactly say that, but it leaves a strong impression:

There is not a power line or factory or air conditioner within a day's walk of this village of 400 people in the southwest Pacific, but these subsistence fishermen are no strangers to the power of industrialization and climate change.

Must be those blasted westerners again.

I don't pretend to know whether the sea is actually rising, or whether any observed rises are natural or man-made. Studies are not conclusive. But this story contains a few yellow flags that are literally begging for illumination. Here's one, from the very first paragraph:

First, their fathers noticed the palm trees that seemed to be inching toward the water's edge and the fire pit that vanished beneath the tides.

Now, it doesn't say when "their fathers" first noticed this phenomenon, but we can safely presume it wasn't the day after Bush 43 took office. Here's another:

Elders first noticed the rising water in 1982. It eroded the sand and bared the rocks beneath

It appears the islanders are saying the sea level rises began over 25 years ago, but there's a problem with that. Atmospheric temperature rises don't seem to correlate. Take a look at the following graph, which marks U.S. temperatures through the 20th century:

Notice the maximum in the 1920s/1930s, followed by a gradual cooling, which has transitioned into our latest warming. Based on this, why would the sea levels be rising in 1982?

Perhaps the answer isn't scientific at all. Later in the Trib's article we find out the islanders are searching for ways to mitigate the rising waters, and they believe they've found a solution within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol:

In international climate talks, PNG and eight other rain forest countries have proposed that nations that reduce deforestation should be eligible to earn and sell "carbon credits."

It's interesting to note that a similar brouhaha has been swirling around the pacific island of Tuvalu for years. Their tribal leaders have similarly demanded recompence from the west for trashing their atoll, yet the evidence is far from clear.

But blaming such things on the deep-pocketed industrialized west is certainly more profitable than blaming them on say Neptune, God of the sea.

AD COUNCIL 8/23/06

You’ve probably seen the global warming commercials on TV featuring the little girl standing in front of the locomotive. The organization that produced those ads, the Environmental Defense Fund, is also running radio ads sanctioned through the Ad Council, one of which I heard this morning. Of course they have a site.

If you visit the site make sure to look at the “myths and facts” section, which categorically blames ALL recent warming on human activities. Notice the phrase “there is no debate among scientists..”. Anytime you see this, be skeptical. There is ALWAYS debate among scientists on literally everything. There may be a consensus, which is different.

Another slightly ironic section is located in a section on impacts. They mention hurricanes and announce, “storms already getting fiercer”. While they do admit there is still debate, they proceed to attempt a link at the active hurricane seasons of 2004-2005 as an anecdotal correlation. Ironically there was nothing about this season getting off to a slow start due to cooler than expected sea surface temperatures. Only a charlatan would use either a lull or surge to prove a long-term trend.

That said, some of the suggestions on the site are not preachy or political and sound rather practical. Environmental activists would do well to remember they'll get more public response by tackling the problem using our capitalistic system, not by trying to defeat capitalism.