The Indonesian plane disappearance

They still haven't located the wreckage of the Adam Air 737 that disappeared from radar near the coast of Indonesia. This event produced one of the most bizarre post-crash moments in history, with officials several days ago saying they had not only located the wreckage, but there were 12 survivors, when in fact this was based on the wild imagination of some local villagers. Nothing was found.

And you thought our government was incompetent.

This morning on CNN.com you'll find the sensational headline "Lost plane 'battled 130kph winds", as if such a thing could have contributed to the airplane's demise. Well sure, depending on what altitude they encountered those winds. But without such information the headline is useless fluff.

For example, thousands of planes were in flight over America as this was being typed, all of them encountering wind. The observed wind over Little Rock, Arkansas at 6 o'clock this morning ranged from 18 mph at 2500 feet to 105 mph at 30,000 feet. An 80 mph wind at the ground contributed to the crash of an American Airlines plane at Little Rock in 1999, but airliners often 'battle' flight level winds of from 100 to 200 mph with no problem whatsoever.

This is certainly a very odd and tragic case and it's hard to imagine the roller coaster ride these families have endured. Headlines such as these can't help.

UPDATE 1/7/07

This event is really exposing the Indonesian government. They are now calling the missing airplane "an international issue", saying it's ususual for an airplane to disappear for five days without a trace. While that's true over populated areas, it's NOT unusual for an airplane that has suffered a massive structural failure to dive nose down inverted into the ground at 400+ mph and leave nothing but a smoking hole. Recall United 93.

A friend reminds me that if such a thing occurred in a remote jungle it might be a long time before they find the wreckage, so unless they know something we don't, this doesn't look like an international issue yet.

If it did crash into a hole, what caused it? There's a possibility the plane was hijacked or terrorists used one of those Ramzi Yousef 'microbombs' placed under a seat to bring it down, but there are still plenty of rational explanations. It was near an area of thunderstorms, so it could have wandered into extreme turbulence and lost a wing or tail section, etc, which would have caused an immediate dive.