Royal carrot and stick

Earlier this month I hopped on a small bandwagon of pundits who were getting jiggy about the idea of a coming scuffle with Iran. Signs and signals in the open source world were certainly pointing in that direction, but as usual, the true picture remains grainy.

New signs are offering a slightly different direction. Sure, there are still a few ominous clouds roiling around, but if this report can be believed
(and Stratfor has been fairly accurate regards Iraq so far) it signals an interesting twist and possibly a good omen. The Saudi Royals have begun pumping support into the opponents of Hizb'allah, from Fatah in the Palestinian territories to the Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon. We've already heard Riyadh's threat to use their military in Iraq should we redeploy and leave the Sunnis on their own.

The Power Liners were a tad skeptical as was Jules Crittendon, for good reason. Nothing in this region is ever quite what it seems, which causes all the bloviating and blustering here in America. The war on terror has largely become a chess match of disinformation. For example, one might make an effective argument against any change in threat status by pointing to the recent violence in Beirut, or Tehran's announced "satellite" launch, or their nuclear coumbaya moment with axis of evil partner Kim Jong Il, and one may be correct. Things aren't settled.

Yet, if the Mullahs are seriously entertaining Saudi overtures it might suggest those previously ominous signs and signals did the trick. The left mocks Bush for "blowing off" the Baker Commission yet they fail to notice that Robert Gates, a former commission member and former spook, has made it abundantly clear that bargaining in a position of weakness is worthless. The Baker Commission report is available in paperback at Barnes and Noble. Nobody should seriously believe it was the same version presented to president behind closed Oval Office doors.

We've got reinforcements (a surge, if you prefer) on the way to Baghdad while our guys on the ground now have free reign to round up Iranian troublemakers. There's a fresh Carrier battle group steaming towards the region and the House of Saud is pumping wads of cash to the enemies of Iranian proxies, while reports indicate Ahmadinejad's political situation might be tenuous. While still skeptical myself, I really don't think the Iranian Mullahs want self-destruction or a regional war anymore than anyone else. Perhaps they've decided it's time to reign in A'jad and partake in a little dialogue of their own. Behind closed doors, of course.