Tuesday, January 02, 2007

The return of the tryant tyrant

Judging by the Sunni protests it does seem like the hanging of Hussein, as Tom Brokaw points out, couldn't have gone worse.

The government says they will investigate. Great news. The Coalition should make sure that cell-phone guy accompanies the Iraqi officials everywhere they go.

What about the Arab street? Reports of violence and burnt American flags have been scarce--just a few scattered here and there--with most of the action in the Sunni triangle. It's a bit surprising there wasn't freaky mayhem in the Palestinian territory based on Saddam's past support. I guess with Hamas now in power and Arafat dead the memory tends to fade.

But back to Brokaw's observation. Why would the US allow the Iraqis to inflame the very people we're supposedly trying to bring to the table? Does this represent an official taking of sides, and if so, why take the Shia side? As usual it makes very little sense on the surface and leaves a person to wonder whether Washington has any control whatsoever.

But here's where it gets interesting. Rumors are flying about a troop surge--fine as long as there's a mission. Bush has said he'd provide them a mission. My previous WAG was that the Saddam hanging was allowed knowing it would rile up the Sunnis and keep the sectarian war going, which would keep al-Sadr's influence in check and allow us to quietly slip out the back door when necessary.

While that could still happen in the long run Allah's WAG makes more sense based on what we know about Bush. Rousting al-Sadr would be seen as a huge positive step not only to the Sunnis, but to moderate Shia as well. And besides, based on how the Ethiopians recently kicked Islamic butt in Somalia just imagine the extreme prejudice we could lay on the Mahdi boys if we had the mission, and what it might say to Tehran. But the best part--unlike my guess this option actually has a potential outcome that begins with V.

UPDATE 2/9/07

Corrected the title. It's kinda hard for something to return that didn't exist to begin with. Like my spelling skills, for example.

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