It's been a fascinating 2005 hurricane season, not because we've set a modern storm record, but due to the strength of so many of them. The public and media seems impressed with the frequency record, but that's a non-starter for me. If we had about 1000 years of accurate hurricane data this might mean something, otherwise it's just cocktail party small talk. It's the intensity issue that deserves a close look.
For example, hurricane Epsilon, the fifth storm of 2005 to be named after a Greek (because we ran out of 'regular' names) continues to maintain strength in the open Atlantic despite getting hammered by wind shear and traversing cooler waters. That's not supposed to happen. The National Hurricane Center appears to be groping for an explanation:
EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.
Let me translate: WTF?
Here's a satellite image. This storm looks suspiciously like the rare South Atlantic hurricane "Catarina", which occurred off the coast of Brazil in March 2004. No hurricane had ever been recorded in that area before (the Brazilian government still has trouble admitting it).
Although it's possible these events could fall within the realm of natural variability, storms such as Epsilon and Catarina do test my personal believablity in conventional wisdom.
Does that mean I'll shortly become a tree-hugging, bicycle lovin, Birkenstock wearin eco truth warrior? No. Do I believe in global warming? Certainly. Temperatures are now rising, just as they have thousands of times in the past long before the SUV was invented (or people, for that matter). We don't conclusively know what's forcing this latest heat wave, although suspicion centers around help from carbon.
But it's sometimes high fun to look at the politics of science. The wild guess left claims Bush is responsible, simply because he wouldn't sign a piece of paper stamped with IPCC letterhead at a confernece in Japan a few years ago. This treaty does nothing to diminish the carbon already in the atmosphere, which has a half life equivilent to about one human. So, if our current weird weather can be totally blamed on human=induced warming only a few short years after the conference, no amount of ink on a piece of paper will stop it, even if it's special presidential ink.
If it's not Bush, then what or whom can we blame? This guy has a theory. Heck, as long as we're fighting global warming, Islamofascists, Bird Flu and perhaps even Aliens, we might as well fight rogue Japanese mobsters using stolen Soviet electromagnetic toys. Bring it on!
UPDATE 12/4
Check out this quote from the National Hurricane Center's mid morning discussion about our weird little friend Epsilon:
THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS.
That is bordering on bizarre.
Mr. Avila closes his discussion thusly:
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?
FORECASTER AVILA
Global warming does not account for such behavior, folks. There is apparently still much we don't know about tropical cyclones. Or something.
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