Saturday, January 14, 2006

The Iranian quagmire

Everyone is abuzz about Iran's pompous president and his feckless rhetoric. Remember he's just the point man for the Mullahs. Call them "Team Lunacy", if you will.

Surely they understand the concept of mutally assured destruction-- Tel Aviv or New York goes, Tehran goes. Of course the goal would be completed--Israel would be "wiped off the face of the earth" as promised, yet, so would Persia. Do they really want that?

The big difference between A'jad and Kim Jong is the religious equation, which seems to make Iran's threats more serious. He recently predicted the Islamic Messiah would be arriving in a year or two, which subsequently would lead to an Armegeddon-like battle for the world within ten years, so there is definitely a "what the hell" factor to consider. Bush could call his bluff on that one, though.

The easy solution would be to warn the mullahs, "build the bomb and we'll hold you responsible if any city happens to explode". Of course, it's a little more complex than that. We are trying to protect a process. The world has worked hard to build up the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement, the IAEA, and of course the UN and it's UNSC. Those agencies are already rapidly becoming useless in the face of ever-more-arrogant tinhorns. If we allow the Iranians to get nukes by flaunting the system, those agencies might as well shut down. The precedent would be set for copy cats actions the world over without fear of recrimination.

Our military is spread out and costing us billions as it is, we certainly can't afford to attack and they know it. A'jad is also fully aware of Iran's geopoltical significance with respect to oil, as are we. We've not even covered the allegations they've been hiding al Qaeda. So, the solution is way above my pay grade. It's a real quaqmire, folks.

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