Richard Clarke is right

About the new bin Laden tape, at least. He thinks the tape sets the stage for another attack. I agree.

According to Clarke, Osama's faux truce was just a necessary precursor to such an attack:

"That's not a real truce offer. That's just his definition of victory for him," Clarke said. "If there is a major attack in the United States, he'll be able to say, 'Look, we gave the United States a chance … and they didn't take the offer.' ".

Exactly.

Up until this tape it wasn't practical for AQ to attack America. Politics were drifting in their favor, with polls showing a majority disapproving our actions in Iraq and generally distrusting Bush regards the WoT. Why risk changing the mood with an attack, which might fire everyone back up?

Bin Laden must now believe the climate has changed enough to where an attack, catastrophic enough to grab everyone's attention but not cataclysmic, would benefit the cause.

Here's a possible scenario: another attack occurs, everyone gets upset, then AQ immediately releases a propaganda barrage blaming the attack on Bush and our presence in Iraq and other Muslim countries, which includes the reminder that Bush thumbed his nose at the truce offer. The same tactics were used in Madrid and London.

Where would such a scenario leave the anti-war American left, post-attack? Perhaps Bin Laden believes they'd be forced to take his side regarding his wish to speed our exit from both Iraq and the region at large.

I think it might be time to duck.

FLASH 1/20/2006

The emergence of a dated Zawahiri tape suggests two things--

..AQ is actually showing some mild signs of panic.. and

..Zawahiri might have learned the disappointing news about the 72 after all.

Sending out an old tape demonstrates desperation whether he's dead or alive. Apparently they felt the need to slap something out fast, even if old, in an effort to console their nervous flock. They could have easily produced a quickie audio tape of Zawahiri by now, or simply done nothing at all.

Another reason why they might want to strike here if able, and soon.

MORE..

Mr. Anonymous, former CIA operative and creator of the rendition program Michael Scheuer, weighs in:

"You ought to take the measure of your enemy and we're not doing that," he said, adding the truce call would resonate positively in the Muslim world.

Surely this wasn't an example of his analytical skills st at CIA, if so I think we're better off with him in retirement. Let me be as nice as possible--perhaps Reuters took him out of context?

Even attempting to respond to this half-baked truce would show weakness, something they can sense like a cat. This truce is like a sucker pin in golf, if you shoot for it you're likely to end up in the trap. Even a college kid can see it's designed to only benefit Bin Laden. And even if we tried, brokering it would be ridiculous. He should know better, but apparently he doesn't:

"U.S. officials continue to describe these people (al Qaeda) as a small bunch of gangsters and crazy people. They have no apparent conception that so much of the Islamic world is angry with America, not because of our freedoms or liberties but because of our foreign policies," he said.

That's because they ARE a small bunch of murdering gangsters. To think otherwise would require a belief that the vast bulk of the Muslim faith advocated murder and glorified terrorists. We're not supposed to believe that, are we?

He talks of our foreign policy like an al-Jazeera commentator. Perhaps he was busy writing another book while America was helping the earthquake and tsunami victims. And what of the billions we pour into 'the Islamic world'? Guess that slipped the mainframe, too. Capitulation never works, Mr. Scheuer.

TERRORIST BOOK OF THE MONTH CLUB 1/21/2006

Bin Laden's tape curiously mentioned that we should all read a particular book named "Rogue State":

"And if Bush decides to carry on with his lies and oppression, then it would be useful for you to read the book 'Rogue State,'

yada yada. Thanks to Osama's endorsement, American author William Blum's book is now shooting up the most-ordered charts.

Wanna read it? Here's a snippet of the author's dream:

Blum said his life's mission has been this: "If not ending, at least slowing down the American Empire. At least injuring the beast. It's causing so much suffering around the world."

Mentioning this Chomsky-esqe America-hating writer only points out that Bin Laden truly believes the path to victory is partially paved with the American left, similar to Vietnam.

He's certainly accurate in his assessment that Vietnam-era protesters and pissed off ex-soldiers clearly agree with most of his statements about American foriegn policy and share his goals for retreating from the region, without admitting to being on his side, of course. As Blum put it:

And if he is happy to accept bin Laden's plug, he certainly doesn't want to meet his terrorist fan.

"If he would contact me," said Blum, "then I would be scared."

The ironic thing about the left lining up with a guy like Bin Laden, which perhaps escapes them, is that Bin Laden stands for just about everything they hate: control over women (no equal rights), religious theocracy, extreme capital punishment, on and on. It's the hate for our government that brings them together.