Monday, January 09, 2006

Meanwhile in Afghanistan

Not much news coverage from there of late, but things are starting to heat up. On Tony Snow's radio program today he all but confirmed Bin Laden's death, using Micheal Ledeen as a source. It was reputed to have occurred in December and was due to kidney failure. Ledeen said the bearded one had been holed up in Iran ever since he escaped at Tora Bora.

This isn't the first time we've been told a most-wanted terror villain was tango uniform. Izzat al-Douri and Zarqawi also 'died' during the past few years, but both seem to be showing no ill effects. And wait, Harry Reid already told a Neveda reporter Bin Laden died in the Pakistan earthquake.

Besides, a full-scale Iranian-al Qaeda connection seems shaky. Not to say it can't happen, but Bin Laden is a Salafist/Wahhabist and it's well known they don't care much for Shia Islam. Case in point--not widely reported, but terrorist Ramzi Yousef attacked a Shia religious ceremony in Iran in the mid 90s.

But that's not all. Remember the one-eyed bearded one, Mullah Mohammed Omar? We somehow let him slip away from Kandahar back in 2001, with sparse news since. Apparently we've been making overtures of late towards a reconciliation (also not widely reported), to the point of a direct appeal from Prime Minister Hamid Karzai to drink some tea and discuss issues. The invitation was rather rudely rejected. But there is precedent for that.

Keep in mind the 'good war' in Afghanistan is a NATO-backed mission. Lately some of our NATO partners have shown signs of getting wobbly-kneed, such as the Dutch (read Paul Bremer's reaction to that here). Since Bush and Blair are the only politicians NOT showing a weakness of resolve for Iraq, and in light of this Dutch episode, it's a good time for AQ to go on the offensive.

And they have. The bearded one with the little forehead beauty mark claimed the Islamists have already won Iraq. Now Mullah Omar has announced that his new year's resolution will be a regenerated Taliban with many coalition deaths. If your opponent backs up, you keep pushing.

Westerners live in a world of instant gratification. We've already kicked the Taliban's arse, and there haven't been further attacks on the home turf since 9/11, ergo, no problemo. Problemo is, someone forgot to notify those crazy mujahedeen.

MORE 1/10/06

I see the Aussies, not even a part of NATO, understand.

AND MORE

Iran has broken the IAEA seals on it's nuke stuff. As Brit foreign minister Jack Straw said,
"We are profoundly concerned that Iran has decided to restart research and development activities related to uranium enrichment," Straw said in a statement.

"There was no good reason why Iran should have taken this step if its intentions are truly peaceful and it wanted to resolve long standing international concerns," he added.
Trouble, or are the Mullahs simply continuing to posture? If Micheal Ledeen is correct about Bin Laden, then this is indeed troubling and will most likely force a military response from the west. If Ledeen was blowing smoke, being duped, or shilling for the Israelis, then Iran's nuclear brinksmanship may be some sort of Persian version of Kim Jong's tactics.

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