The significance of the Predator raid

An al-Qaeda WMD expert named Midhat Mursi was reportedly killed in the recent attack targeting al-Zawahiri in Pakistan. Let's hope he doesn't rise to become another zombie warrior like so many others.

But if true it's a pretty big score. Mursi, aka Abu Khabab al-Masri, was by all accounts rising in the al-Qaeda power structure and is chem/bio expert. He's been associated with the "red-headed terrorist", Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, also a chemical specialist and jihadi trainer in Afghanistan during the Taliban days. According to the Pakistanis Nasar the Red was captured back in November of last year. Both slugs were keen on getting WMDs to America, or as Nasar liked to say, "dirty bombs for a dirty nation".

According to Robert Wesley from the Jamestown Foundation they were yet to acquire enough sophistication to get a viable program running before we cleaned out the camps, but had been interested in things like anthrax:

Whether due to the frustrations of a stagnate nuclear weapons program or the aspiration to pursue other WMD for their unique capabilities, al-Qaeda, under the direction of Abu Hafs al-Masri and Midhat Mursi, aka Abu Khabab, established a biological weapons program around 1999 [6]. The program experimented and developed several biological agents including botulinum toxin, but al-Qaeda still seemed fixated on agents with mass casualty potential. Operating in laboratories scattered among al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan, the biological program began experiments in isolating a virulent strain of “Agent X,” most likely anthrax bacteria.

It is difficult for a group such as al-Qaeda to weaponize anthrax bacteria, but not impossible. Through interrogations and captured documents, we know that al-Qaeda was interested in aerial dispersal of a weaponized biological agent, presumably anthrax bacteria [7]. The primacy given to anthrax bacteria indicates that either deterrence was still considered an appealing possibility through biological as well as nuclear weapons, or that the intention was to actually engage in a WMD attack with the view of inflicting mass casualties. The second of these possibilities would have been a departure from the previous focus on deterrent weapons. If we look back to the initial debate over WMD we find that there was substantial disagreement among al-Qaeda leadership over the possible audiences’ negative reactions to a WMD attack. The audiences under consideration included the victimized population and its government, potential international sympathetic constituencies and perhaps even elements of al-Qaeda itself. These apparent reservations appear to have been resolved with the advancement of its biological weapons program.

Any mention of anthrax in enemy hands should rustle up memories of the anthrax letter attacks, yet it rarely does. Were the letters actually AQ calling cards?

That question always presents the following dichotomy--if the letters were of AQ origin (as opposed to some nutball American scientist) it means they once possessed weaponized anthrax in some quantity. Why no follow-on attacks? One might argue our aggressive anti-terror measures prevented them entry to the country, but foreign entrance is no prerequisite. The letter contents and stamp lickers were already here.

This brings to mind a possible reason Bush spun up the NSA eavesdropping program. Since nobody was caught in relation to the original attack we have no reason to believe anyone left the country, although we have no clue who they might be. Why not surveille known AQ people overseas, like Masri or Nasar, to see who they might be calling here? We might get lucky and prevent a "go call".

Why not go through FISA? We'll assume Bush was not doing this for nefarious purposes, since he informed a small but influential cadre of government officials beforehand. For the program to be effective the circle of knowledge couldn't be too too wide, perhaps not even enough for the FISA court, since loose lips abound anywhere political points can be scored. Just a thought.

Then again, what if neither AQ nor some deranged scientist was responsible for the anthrax attacks? That leaves only one potential suspect who could have benefited from such a deterrent. It's the guy whose country is now in turmoil, whose deputy was killed but came back to life to direct the "Saddamist" insurgency, and who himself has yet to meet the hangman's noose, while his chief trial judge recently scampered back to Kurdistan in abject fear.

1/19/2006

Boortz. Gotta love the way he puts things in perspective sometimes..

# Midhat Mursi (pictured), also known as Abu Khabab (not to be confused with shish kebab, which he probably currently resembles) was known to have been in the area at the time. Who is he? He ran a chemical and explosives training camp in Afghanistan.

WHOOPS 1/26/2006

Did the government display an incorrect photo of Midhat Mursi, aka Abu Khabab? When the story came out the pic looked awful close to the fanatical British Imam Abu Hamza, last in the news when Richard Reid was captured, but I couldn't believe they'd mistake the two. Did they?